2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_IMF_Resident_Representative_Office_in_Armenia_4页_682kb

Armenia Economic Summary (2016–2018)

Core Economic Indicators

Real Sector

• GDP (in millions of dram, at current prices):
  • The GDP fluctuated significantly, with a notable decline in Sep-16 and Dec-16, followed by a sharp increase in Mar-17 (972,699.5) and Jun-17 (1,214,276.9), reaching a peak in Dec-17 (1,789,654.9) and Mar-18 (1,112,169.3).
• GDP (in millions of USD, at current prices):
  • GDP in USD showed similar trends, with a drop in Sep-16 and Dec-16, followed by increases in Mar-17 (2,002.3), Jun-17 (2,512.3), and Dec-17 (3,704.6), then a decline in Mar-18 (2,310.3).
• Inflation (annual percent change):
  • Inflation rates were generally negative in early 2016, gradually turning positive by mid-2017, with a peak of 3.7% in Jan-18.
• Core Inflation (annual percent change):
  • Core inflation followed a similar trend, with a decline from -2.2% in Sep-16 to 1.9% in Oct-17, and then rising to 3.3% in Jan-18.
• PPI (annual percent change):
  • PPI increased from 4.5% in Sep-16 to 8.0% in Nov-16, then declined to 1.5% in Aug-17, and rose again to 5.3% in Sep-17.
• Exchange Rate (AMD per USD, e.o.p.):
  • The exchange rate fluctuated between 474.1 and 484.3, with a slight decline in Dec-17 to 480.8, followed by a small increase in Jan-18.
• Unemployment Rate:
  • The unemployment rate was high in early 2016, peaking at 19.0% in Mar-17, then decreasing to 16.5% in Sep-17, and rising again to 19.0% in Mar-18.
• Electricity Production and Distribution:
  • Production increased in Sep-16 to Dec-16, but dropped in Jan-17 and Feb-17, followed by a recovery in Mar-17 and Sep-17, and a decline in Jan-18.
• Retail Sales Turnover:
  • Sales showed a sharp increase in Dec-16 (172,666.8), followed by a decline in Jan-17 (74,201.5), and then a steady growth until Sep-17, with a notable dip in Jan-18.
• Average Nominal Wage (annual percent change):
  • Wages increased in Sep-16 to Oct-17, peaking at 6.7% in Jun-17, then declined in Jan-18 (–6.8%), and further dropped in Feb-18 (–7.3%).
• Public vs. Private Sector Wages:
  • Public sector wages had a mixed trend, with a decline in Sep-16 and Oct-16, followed by increases in Jan-17 (1.7%) and Jun-17 (5.3%), but a sharp drop in Jan-18 (–16.3%).
  • Private sector wages had a similar pattern, with fluctuations and a significant drop in Jan-18 (–14.3%).

Monetary Sector

• M2/GDP:
  • The ratio increased from 19.7% in Sep-16 to 24.7% in Mar-18, with some volatility.
• M2X/GDP:
  • The ratio also rose, from 15.5% in Sep-16 to 24.0% in Mar-18.
• Deposits/GDP:
  • Deposits increased from 32.8% in Sep-16 to 41.3% in Mar-18.
• Credit/GDP:
  • Credit increased from 43.6% in Sep-16 to 52.7% in Mar-18.
• Bank Assets/GDP:
  • Bank assets rose from 72.1% in Sep-16 to 85.4% in Mar-18.
• Exchange Rate Trends (AMD per USD):
  • The exchange rate showed minor fluctuations, generally stable, with a slight increase in Sep-17 and Oct-17.
• Interest Rates:
  • CBA repo rate remained stable at 6.0% from Mar-17 to Mar-18.
  • T-Bills interest rate decreased from 8.3% in Sep-16 to 6.0% in Mar-18.
  • AMD lending and deposit rates fluctuated between 12.0% and 17.7%.
  • USD lending and deposit rates decreased from 9.7% in Sep-16 to 6.0% in Mar-18.
  • Lending-deposit spread (AMD):
    • Increased in early 2016, then decreased, with a peak of 8.2% in Jan-17 and a decline in Mar-18.
  • Lending-deposit spread (USD):
    • Fluctuated between 3.1% and 6.3%, with a decrease in Mar-18.

Fiscal Sector

• Revenues and Grants (annual percent change):
  • Revenues fluctuated, with a sharp decline in Jan-18 (–28.2%) and a slight increase in Feb-18 (–6.7%), followed by a recovery in Mar-18 (–1.2%).
• Tax Revenue and Social Contributions:
  • Tax revenue had a similar pattern, with a significant drop in Jan-18 (–29.7%) and a slight increase in Mar-18 (–1.1%).
• VAT Revenue:
  • VAT revenue increased from –14.7% in Sep-16 to 12.7% in Oct-17, then declined to 7.0% in Dec-17, and increased again in Mar-18 (9.3%).
• Social Contributions:
  • Social contributions showed a steady increase from 23.8% in Sep-16 to 43.7% in Mar-18.
• Expenses (Current Expenditures):
  • Expenses increased from 4.0% in Sep-16 to 6.7% in Dec-17, then slightly decreased in Jan-18 (0.8%) and increased again in Mar-18 (3.1%).
• Capital Expenditures:
  • Capital expenditures fluctuated, with a peak in Jan-17 (85.4%) and a decline in Mar-18 (–4.0%).
• Disposals of Non-Financial Assets:
  • Disposals decreased from 217.6 in Sep-16 to –91.1 in Mar-18.
• Overall Balance:
  • The overall balance showed a decline from –4.3% in Sep-16 to –2.8% in Mar-18.
• Net Lending (below the line):
  • Net lending fluctuated, with a peak of –1.0% in Jan-17 and a decline in Mar-18 (–0.6%).

External Sector

• Trade Balance (in millions of USD):
  • Trade balance was negative throughout the period, with the most negative in Jan-18 (–173.6).
• Exports:
  • Exports fluctuated between 122 and 216.1, with a decline in Jan-18.
• Imports:
  • Imports increased from 220 in Jan-17 to 407.5 in Mar-18.
• Current Account Balance:
  • Current account balance fluctuated, with a significant negative value in Dec-17 (–338.3).
• Private Transfers:
  • Private transfers data is incomplete in the table.

Key Notes

• Data revisions:
  • Some data points are revised and marked in bold.
• Methodology changes:
  • Changes in methodology, such as the update of CPI basket weights in 2015 and the adoption of SNA 2008 in 2015, may affect data comparability.
• Unemployment and wage trends:
  • Unemployment and wage trends were highly volatile, especially in early 2017 and early 2018.
• Exchange rates and inflation:
  • Exchange rates and inflation were relatively stable in most months, with some fluctuations.