20140203-Maybank_KERPL-Singapore_Banks__A_mixed_finish_to_2013_16页_828kb

报告摘要

Singapore Banks Summary

Core Content Overview

The report provides an analysis of the Singapore banking sector in 2013 and outlook for 2014-2015, highlighting key performance indicators and investment recommendations.

Key Trends in 2013

Loan Growth: The industry DBU loan growth increased slightly to 17.0% YoY in 2013 from 16.7% in 2012, driven by stronger business loan growth (22.9% YoY) and weaker consumer loan growth (8.9% YoY).
Loan Composition: Business loans accounted for 60.8% of total DBU loans, while consumer loans made up 39.2%.
Consumer Loans: Consumer loan growth slowed significantly due to a sharp decline in housing loans (9.5% YoY) and a contraction in car loans (-14.6% YoY). Housing loans accounted for 74.0% of total consumer loans.
Housing Loans: The growth in housing loans slowed due to a weaker property market and a higher base factor, though it is expected to continue being supported by completed home sales from 2011-2012.
Business Loans: Business loan growth was robust in 2013, particularly in general commerce (32.4% YoY) and financial institutions sectors. It is expected to grow at 12-14% in 2014-2015.
Building & Construction Loans: Growth is expected to slow to around 10% in 2014 due to a high base factor, but will be supported by ongoing projects into 2015.
Deposits: SGD deposit growth slowed to 3.6% YoY in 2013, the slowest since April 2005, with a flat trend over the past 10 months.
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR): The industry DBU LDR reached 106.8% in 2013, the highest since June 1998, indicating a tight liquidity profile.

Investment Recommendations

DBS: Maintained as the top sector pick with a target price of SGD19.70, showing a 19.6% upside. It is well-positioned to benefit from rising interest rates and has a strong presence in Greater China.
UOB: Also recommended as a "BUY" with a target price of SGD23.40 and a 17.0% upside. It has a disciplined management team and significant exposure to ASEAN markets.
OCBC: Recommended as "HOLD" with a target price of SGD11.30 and a 21.5% upside. However, its potential acquisition of Wing Hang Bank and uncertain market reception to its new CEO may pose risks.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	2013E	2014E	2015E	2016E
Net Interest Income	SGD5,624.0	SGD5,943.0	SGD6,702.1	SGD8,000.0
Fee Income	SGD1,989.1	SGD2,193.0	SGD2,493.4	SGD2,899.1
Core Non-Interest Income	SGD3,394.4	SGD3,502.9	SGD3,928.1	SGD4,522.1
Core Operating Income	SGD9,018.4	SGD9,445.9	SGD10,630.2	SGD12,522.1
Core Pre-Provision Profit	SGD5,006.2	SGD5,068.8	SGD5,841.6	SGD7,250.6
Core Operating Profit	SGD4,214.3	SGD4,257.5	SGD5,001.6	SGD6,357.3
Core Pre-Tax Profit	SGD4,325.9	SGD4,375.8	SGD5,125.8	SGD6,491.5
Core Net Profit	SGD3,442.3	SGD3,480.7	SGD4,107.1	SGD5,321.1

Valuation Summary

Metric	2013E	2014E	2015E	2016E
P/E (x)	11.8	11.7	9.9	7.7
P/BV (x)	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.0
P/NTA (x)	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.1
ROE (%)	10.5	10.0	11.0	13.1
ROA (%)	0.9	0.8	0.9	1.1
Net Dividend Yield (%)	3.4	3.4	3.6	3.9

Outlook and Risks

Interest Rates: Projected to rise to 1.0% by end-2015 and 2.0% by end-2016, which could boost net interest margins (NIM).
NIM Trends: Expected to remain depressed in 2014 before improving in 2015, though still below the 16-year average.
Risks:
- DBS: Unexpected departure of key personnel.
- UOB: Political instability in Thailand.
- OCBC: Potential overpayment for Wing Hang Bank and prolonged capital market depression.

Summary of Key Points

Loan Growth: Mixed performance in 2013 with strong business loan growth offsetting weaker consumer loan growth.
Deposit Growth: Slowest in nearly nine years, with continued weakness expected in 2014.
LDR: Industry DBU LDR reached a record high, indicating tight liquidity.
Sector Performance: DBS is the top pick due to its potential to benefit from rising interest rates and Greater China exposure.
OCBC: Caution advised due to uncertainties around its acquisition and management transition.
Valuation: All three banks show varying valuations, with DBS and UOB having more favorable P/E and P/BV ratios.
Earnings: Projected to improve in 2015, with a potential significant uplift in NIM as interest rates rise.

Conclusion

The Singapore banking sector showed mixed results in 2013, with business loans growing strongly while consumer loans, especially housing loans, decelerated. The sector's loan-to-deposit ratio reached a record high, indicating a tight liquidity environment. DBS is highlighted as the top sector pick due to its strategic advantages and potential for growth in a rising interest rate environment, while OCBC is advised to be cautious due to uncertainties in its acquisition and management. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring interest rate movements and the impact on NIM and overall profitability.

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