2025-05-13-世界银行-摩尔多瓦贫困评估_增加机会和加强韧性（英）_86页_3mb

Moldova Poverty Assessment Summary

Overview

Moldova has achieved significant poverty reduction in the past, bringing the national poverty rate from 30.2% in 2006 to 11.4% in 2018. However, progress stalled recently due to declining remittances and increasing energy costs, leading to higher poverty in 2021-2022. Poverty reduction now faces new challenges, including climate change impacts on agriculture, weak labor market opportunities, and persistent gender-based economic barriers.

Key Findings by Priority Area

Priority 1: Access to High-Quality Employment and Services

• Despite decades of growth, substantial job opportunities remain lacking, especially in rural areas and the North. The high concentration of low-quality employment and informal work means many working-age Moldovans struggle to escape poverty.
• Sixty percent of Moldovans aged 15+ are economically inactive, with youth, women, older Moldovans, and persons with disabilities particularly underrepresented in the workforce.
• Barriers preventing greater workforce inclusion include limited childcare access, inflexible work arrangements (especially for women), insufficient anti-discrimination measures, and inadequate skills matching education to labor market needs.
• Energy affordability remains a chronic problem, with nearly 40% unable to keep their homes adequately warm. High energy price shocks from 2022 disproportionately impact rural and lower-income households unless mitigated.

Priority 2: Vulnerabilities to Climate and Energy Shocks

• Moldova is highly vulnerable to climate-related events, experiencing frequent droughts, floods, and rising temperatures which threaten agriculture and household incomes.
• Fiscal space for climate action is constrained by recent economic crises, limiting investment in climate adaptation measures.
• Despite energy subsidy programs (like the EVRF) helping cushion price impacts, only about 56% of poor households undertake energy-efficient upgrades, constraining long-term affordability improvements.

Labor Force Constraints

• Moldova's labor force participation rates are among Europe's lowest, with particularly concerning rates among women and youth.
• Educational and skill mismatches contribute to high rates of out-migration among youth, further straining the domestic labor force.
• Low retirement ages and short life expectancies limit participation durations, weakening the pension system's sustainability.

Conclusion

Moldova needs to pivot to an employment-driven economic model to achieve sustainable poverty reduction, while simultaneously building resilience against climate and energy price volatility. Key actions include expanding access to flexible work arrangements, improving rural infrastructure and connectivity, reforming education and labor training, and strengthening social protection systems to support the most vulnerable households during fiscal constraints.