彭博-在新兴市场调动资本-英-75页_2mb

报告摘要

Executive Summary and Key Findings

The report "Mobilizing Capital in and to Emerging Markets" examines the state of energy transition investment in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). In 2022, EMDEs saw record-low-carbon energy supply investment of $85 billion, up from 2021, but this still represents less than 15% of global investment. Key conclusions include:

Insufficient Investment: Low-carbon investment in EMDEs needs to increase five-fold by 2030 to meet net-zero emission goals, while fossil fuel investment must halve.
Country Progress: Brazil led EMDE renewable energy investment in 2022, driven by stable policies and strong institutions. India, South Africa, and Vietnam made progress, but challenges like policy instability and high debt costs persist.
Enabling Environment: Support from multilateral development banks (MDBs), country platforms like Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), and mechanisms for managed coal phaseouts are crucial. Collaboration between governments, MDBs, and the private sector is essential.
Voluntary Carbon Markets: Can play a role if scaled, providing financial incentives for decarbonization in EMDEs.

Energy Transition Investment State (2022)

Low-carbon energy investment peaked at $85 billion, with renewables dominating new capacity additions (74%). However, fossil fuel investment remains dominant in many EMDEs.
Investment concentrated in upper-middle-income countries like Brazil, with small-scale solar growing rapidly.
Financing was dominated by project developers and international utilities, with MDBs playing a key role in middle-income countries.

Country Case Studies

Argentina: Relied on renewable energy auctions and guarantees, but high inflation and debt costs hindered investment.
Brazil: Strong policy frameworks and MDB support drove over $93 billion in renewable investment. Local financial institutions were vital.
Egypt: MDBs and international partnerships boosted renewable flow, but high borrowing costs remain a barrier.
India: Auctions and domestic investment led the market, but India needs to quadruple renewables capacity by 2030.
South Africa: Auctions worked but policy shifts damaged investor confidence.
Vietnam: Feed-in tariffs spurred growth, but oversupply and grid issues caused investment declines.

Accelerating Investment

Policy frameworks must foster stable conditions, grid planning, and clear auctions to reduce risks.
Macroeconomic factors, including high debt costs, need to be addressed through central bank reforms and MDB backing.
Country platforms (e.g., JETPs) improve cross-stakeholder coordination and mobilize financing.

Transformational Initiatives

MDB Evolution: MDBs should focus on climate finance, blending concessional and private capital.
Coal Phaseout: Tools like carbon offsets can aid coal retirements in strategic markets.
Carbon Markets: Effective scaling can ensure resources flow to EMDEs for decarbonization.

Conclusion

Unprecedented collaboration is required to increase low-carbon energy investment. Five-fold growth by 2030 needs stronger policies, MDB engagement, local capital market development, and innovative finance instruments to support EMDEs in their energy transition.

Key Recommendations