20141208-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_15页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 08 December 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of market insights and investment recommendations across several Asian regions, including China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, focusing on key sectors such as Healthcare, Telecommunications, and Rubber Gloves. It also includes performance data for key indices and stock recommendations.
Key Regions and Sectors
China - Healthcare
- Sector Rotation Impact: The market has shifted focus from healthcare to banks and property stocks, leading to a decline in healthcare share prices.
- Buying Opportunities: Despite the sector rotation, healthcare companies are expected to report strong results in 2014 and beyond due to solid growth momentum.
- Positive Outlook: The sector outlook remains bright due to factors like an aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence, and increasing health awareness.
- Top Picks: Sihuan, China TCM, Lijun Intl, Sinopharm, TUL, and Pioneer Pharma are recommended as BUYs.
- Valuation: The PEG ratio of healthcare stocks is currently lower than the past two years, indicating potential undervaluation.
- Policy Support: Government policies are expected to continue supporting the industry's growth and healthy development.
Indonesia - Telecommunications
- Data Monetisation: Telkom and Indosat are better at monetising data due to their ability to charge premium prices.
- 3G Rollout: Indosat has accelerated its 3G network rollout, leading to significant data traffic growth.
- Subscriber Growth: Indosat is expected to see a positive impact from its network modernisation programme starting in 1Q15.
- Market Position: Telkom maintains a lead in network coverage, and both are recommended as BUYs.
- Churn and Competition: XL Axiata has experienced higher churn and subscriber loss due to its cautious approach to data pricing.
- Data Traffic and Revenue: Data traffic and revenue have grown significantly, but pricing erosion is a concern due to Flash package adoption.
Malaysia - Rubber Gloves
- Margin Pressure: Glove manufacturers, particularly those with a high nitrile content, have faced margin compression due to rebounding nitrile prices.
- Top Glove Performance: Top Glove is upgraded to a BUY due to temporary margin expansion from the time lag in passing on weakened latex prices.
- Sector Rebound: Natural rubber glove players could benefit from lower latex prices, especially if they continue to lag in passing on cost savings.
- Hartalega and Kossan: Hartalega is recommended as a SELL due to its vulnerability to nitrile price rebounds, while Kossan is recommended as a HOLD.
- Market Weight: The sector is maintained at MARKET WEIGHT, with potential for short-term appreciation if latex prices remain low.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17958.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 8.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2075.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 12.3 |
| FTSE 100 | 6742.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | -0.1 |
| AS30 | 5313.6 | -0.6 | 0.3 | -3.8 | -0.7 |
| CSI 300 | 3124.9 | 0.7 | 11.3 | 24.9 | 34.1 |
| FSSTI | 3324.4 | 0.6 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 5.0 |
| HSCEI | 11600.5 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 7.3 |
| HSI | 24002.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| JCI | 5188.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 21.4 |
| KLCI | 1749.4 | 0.2 | -3.9 | -4.1 | -6.3 |
| KOSPI | 1986.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | -1.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17920.5 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 10.0 |
| SET | 1597.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 23.0 |
| TWSE | 9206.6 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 6.9 |
| BDI | 982 | -3.6 | -14.8 | -31.7 | -56.9 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2151 | 0.2 | -1.7 | -6.4 | -16.4 |
| Nymex Crude | 66 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -16.3 | -33.1 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunac China | 1918 HK | 6.94 | 9.29 | 33.9% |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 5.48 | 6.15 | 12.2% |
| Bank Mandiri | BMRI J | 10,650.00 | 12,500.00 | 17.4% |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | 5.04 | 5.50 | 9.1% |
| DBS | DBS SP | 19.68 | 22.68 | 15.2% |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | 0.77 | 1.57 | 103.9% |
| Bangkok Bank | BBL TB | 199.50 | 276.00 | 38.3% |
| Advanced Info | ADVANC | 248.00 | 270.00 | 8.9% |
Key Assumptions
| Indicator | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Euro Zone GDP | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Japan GDP | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Singapore GDP | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Malaysia GDP | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Thailand GDP | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Indonesia GDP | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Hong Kong GDP | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China GDP | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 110 | 100 | 85 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 736 | 725 | 765 |
| BDI | 1219 | 1200 | 1300 |
Key Risks and Catalysts
China - Healthcare
- Risks: Lower tendering prices, government anti-corruption efforts, and intensified competition.
- Catalysts: Strong earnings growth, policy support, and R&D/M&A activities.
Indonesia - Telecommunications
- Risks: Slow subscriber growth, intensified price competition, and regulatory changes.
- Catalysts: Improved data monetisation, network modernisation, and data traffic growth.
Malaysia - Rubber Gloves
- Risks: Rebound in nitrile prices, supply overhang, and margin compression.
- Catalysts: Weakening latex prices, potential for margin expansion, and production mix improvements.
Analysts
- China Healthcare: Carol Dou, caroldou@uobkayhian.com, (8621) 5404 7225 ext.811.
- Indonesia Telecommunications: Jonathan Koh, CFA, jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com, +65 6590 6620.
- Malaysia Rubber Gloves: Lester Chin, lesterchin@uobkayhian.com, +603 2147 1970.
Conclusion
The report highlights the potential for buying opportunities in the healthcare sector in China due to sector rotation and undervaluation. In Indonesia, telecommunications companies, especially Telkom and Indosat, are expected to benefit from improved data monetisation and network expansion. In Malaysia, the rubber glove sector is seen as having short-term upside from weakened latex prices, with Top Glove being a top recommendation. Overall, the market environment remains mixed, with some sectors showing resilience and others facing headwinds.
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