2018年-普华永道全球_Manhattan_Lodging_Index_PwC_17页_1mb

Manhattan Lodging Index Summary - Second Quarter 2018

Core Content Overview

The Manhattan Lodging Index for the second quarter of 2018 highlights continued growth in the hotel sector, driven by increased demand and pricing power. Key metrics such as Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) showed significant improvements across different hotel classes and submarkets. The overall market also experienced a rise in occupancy, reaching a 24-year high in Q2.

Main Points

• Lodging Performance:

  • ADR increased for the sixth consecutive month.
  • RevPAR growth was 4.3% year-over-year, with a 5.5% increase for the first half of 2018.
  • Occupancy reached 90.7% in Q2, marking the highest year-to-date level in 24 years.

• Submarket Analysis:

  • Midtown East: Largest RevPAR increase at 7.6%, driven by ADR growth of 7.0%.
  • Midtown South: RevPAR growth of 5.7%, with a mix of occupancy and ADR gains.
  • Midtown West and Lower Manhattan: RevPAR growth of 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively, due to ADR increases.
  • Upper Manhattan: Decline in occupancy year-over-year, but ADR growth of 3.2%.

• Hotel Class Performance:

  • Luxury: Occupancy remained flat at 83.5%, but ADR increased 4.3%.
  • Upper Upscale: RevPAR growth of 1.9%, with minimal occupancy improvement.
  • Upscale: RevPAR growth of 5.8%, with the largest occupancy increase year-over-year at 1.3%.
  • Upper Midscale: RevPAR growth of 4.5%, with the smallest occupancy increase at 0.2%.

• Chain vs. Independent Hotels:

  • Chain-affiliated hotels lagged behind independent hotels in both occupancy and ADR growth.
  • Independent hotels reported higher occupancy gains (1.0%) and ADR increases (3.8%).

• Hotel Transactions:

  • Six hotel sales were reported in Q2, with notable transactions including The Maxwell and The Quin.
  • The Riff Hotel Chelsea and Hotel Deauville were among the properties sold, with The Quin being the largest at $174.5 million.

• Planned Openings and Closings:

  • Two hotels opened in Q2: AC Hotel by Marriott New York Times Square and Assemblage John Street.
  • Several other hotels were planned for 2018 and 2019, with a focus on Midtown and Lower Manhattan.

Office Market Trends

• Vacancy Rates:

  • Vacancy remained flat year-over-year but increased slightly to 9.2% from 8.8% in Q1.
  • Net absorption reached 4.2 million square feet, a 100% increase from prior year levels.

• Leasing Activity:

  • Midtown saw a 5.9% increase in leasing activity.
  • Asking rents increased in all major markets, with Downtown hitting a record of $62.92 per square foot.

• New Developments:

  • New Class-A office space completions, such as 280 Park Avenue and 375 Hudson Street, contributed to rent increases.
  • Over 17 million square feet of new office space is under construction, expected to impact vacancy rates.

Employment Trends

• Unemployment Rates:

  • New York City's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate averaged 4.2% in Q2, down 8.6% year-over-year.
  • New York State's rate was 4.5%, down 3.5% from Q2 2017.
  • National unemployment rate was 3.9%, down slightly from Q1 2018.

• Job Growth:

  • Educational and health services added 30,300 jobs.
  • Professional and business services added 13,500 jobs.
  • Leisure and hospitality added 10,900 jobs.

• Job Losses:

  • Only the manufacturing sector experienced job losses, with a decline of 1,600 jobs.

Economic Indicators

• Gross Metro Product (GMP):

  • Expected to increase by 2.5% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019 according to Moody's Economy.com.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI):

  • New York City's CPI increased by 2.0% in Q2, while the national rate was 2.7%.

Air Traffic

• Passenger Growth:

  • Air traffic in the New York metropolitan area increased by 6.1% year-over-year.
  • International traffic reached 13.3 million passengers, a 6.2% increase from Q2 2017.
  • Domestic traffic hit an over 5-year high of 23.4 million passengers.

• Airport Performance:

  • Newark Liberty, LaGuardia, and JFK airports saw increases in passenger numbers.

Summary of Key Metrics

Overall Market

By Class

By Neighborhood

2018 Hotel Transactions

2019 Hotel Openings

Conclusion

The Manhattan lodging market showed robust growth in Q2 2018, with ADR and RevPAR rising across all hotel classes and submarkets. While occupancy remained strong, some submarkets like Upper Manhattan experienced declines. The office market also showed signs of strength, with increased net absorption and asking rents. Employment trends were positive, with job growth in key sectors, and air traffic increased, indicating continued demand for travel in the region.