2018年-普华永道全球_PwC’s_Manhattan_Lodging_Index_–_Q1_2018_16页_1mb

Manhattan Lodging Index First Quarter 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Manhattan Lodging Index First Quarter 2018 provides an overview of the performance of the hotel industry in Manhattan, highlighting key metrics such as RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room), occupancy, and ADR (Average Daily Rate). It also includes employment trends, economic indicators, office market statistics, and recent and planned hotel transactions.

Main Points

Manhattan Lodging Overview

• RevPAR Growth: RevPAR increased by 7.4% year-over-year, the first Q1 increase since 2013.
  • This growth was driven by a 3.7% increase in occupancy and a 3.5% increase in ADR.
• Segment Performance:
  • Luxury Class: Led with a 14.8% RevPAR increase, driven by 8.7% occupancy growth and 5.5% ADR increase.
  • Upper Midscale: Showed a 7.5% RevPAR increase, primarily due to strong ADR growth.
  • Upscale Class: RevPAR increased by 7.2%, with a 4.9% occupancy increase.
  • Upper Upscale Class: RevPAR growth was the weakest at 2.0%, due to flat occupancy and limited rate increases.
• Submarket Performance:
  • Upper Manhattan and Midtown West experienced ADR-driven RevPAR increases of 11.9% and 6.5%, respectively.
  • Midtown South and Lower Manhattan saw occupancy-driven RevPAR increases of 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively.
  • Lower Manhattan had flat ADR levels, likely due to the highest supply increase at 8.2%.
  • Midtown East saw a 9.4% RevPAR increase, driven equally by occupancy and ADR.

Employment Trends

• Unemployment Rate:
  • New York City's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2%, down 8.6% year-over-year.
  • New York State's rate was 4.6%, down 1.4% from Q4 2017.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%.
• Job Growth:
  • The private sector added 74,600 jobs or 1.9% over the past 12 months.
  • The largest job gains were in educational and health services and professional and business services, with 35,100 and 16,700 jobs added respectively.
  • Only the manufacturing sector saw a decline, with 1,300 jobs lost.

Gross Metro Product and Consumer Price Index

• Gross Metro Product:
  • Expected to grow by 3.0% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI):
  • New York City's CPI increased by 1.6%, while the national CPI rose 2.2%.

Office Market Statistics

• Vacancy Rates:
  • Overall vacancy rate in Manhattan was 8.8%, down 10 basis points from Q1 2017 and 60 basis points year-over-year.
  • Midtown saw the largest decline in vacancy, down 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 50 basis points year-over-year.
  • Downtown vacancy rate dropped to 8.1%, a 10 basis point decrease from Q4 2017.
• Gross Asking Rents:
  • Manhattan gross asking rents decreased 1.7% year-over-year to $72.13 per square foot.
  • Midtown rents decreased 1.8% from Q4 2017 and 3.4% year-over-year to $79.15 per square foot.
  • Downtown rents increased 3.1% from Q4 2017 to $59.20 per square foot.
• Key Lease Transactions:
  • JP Morgan Chase signed a new lease at 390 Madison Avenue.
  • Simon & Schuster renewed its lease at 1230 Avenue of the Americas.
  • Omnicom renewed and expanded its lease at 195 Broadway.

Air Traffic Statistics

• Air Traffic Growth:
  • Increased by 2.3% year-over-year.
  • International traffic rose 6.1% to 10.5 million passengers.
  • Domestic traffic increased slightly by 0.3% to 19.4 million passengers.

Recent and Planned Hotel Transactions

• Completed Transactions:
  • aloft Harlem sold for $34M.
  • Times Square EDITION sold for $1.53B.
  • Hampton Inn Manhattan / Downtown-Financial District sold for $32.4M.
  • Riff Hotel Chelsea sold for $27.5M.
  • The Maxwell New York City sold for $190M.
• Planned Openings:
  • 14 new hotels were planned for 2018, with additional projects in 2020 and 2021.

First Quarter 2018 Performance

• Overall Market Average:
  • Occupancy: Increased by 3.7% to 81.3%.
  • ADR: Increased by 3.5% to $215.72.
  • RevPAR: Increased by 7.4% to $175.39.
• By Class:
  • Luxury: Occupancy increased by 8.7%, ADR increased by 5.5%, and RevPAR increased by 14.8%.
  • Upper Upscale: Occupancy increased by 0.3%, ADR increased by 1.7%, and RevPAR increased by 2.0%.
  • Upscale: Occupancy increased by 4.9%, ADR increased by 2.2%, and RevPAR increased by 7.2%.
  • Upper Midscale: Occupancy increased by 2.0%, ADR increased by 5.4%, and RevPAR increased by 7.5%.

Key Information

• RevPAR Growth: The first Q1 increase since 2013, driven by strong demand and slowing supply.
• Supply Growth: Slowed to 2.8%, the lowest since Q1 2015.
• Pricing Power: Re-emerged in the hotel sector, with higher-priced segments leading the growth.
• Neighborhood Trends:
  • Midtown South and Lower Manhattan experienced occupancy-driven RevPAR growth.
  • Lower Manhattan had flat ADR due to the highest supply increase.
• Transaction Activity:
  • Hotel sales slowed in 2018, with only 5 sales completed through May 2018.
  • Major transactions included the sale of Times Square EDITION and The Maxwell New York City.
• Office Market: Improved with 1.2 million square feet of net absorption and a 10 basis point drop in vacancy.

Summary

The first quarter of 2018 marked a significant recovery in Manhattan's hotel sector, with RevPAR increasing for the first time since 2013. This was driven by strong demand and a slowdown in supply growth, with higher-priced luxury hotels leading the way. The employment market also showed moderate improvements, with a notable increase in private sector jobs. The office market improved as well, with lower vacancy rates and increased leasing activity in Midtown. Air traffic increased slightly, with strong international growth. While hotel transaction activity slowed, several high-profile sales occurred, and multiple new hotel projects were announced for 2018 and beyond.