2021-05-31-世界经济论坛-Chief_Economists_Outlook_21页_2mb

Chief Economists Outlook – June 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Chief Economists Outlook – June 2021 report, published by the World Economic Forum's Centre for the New Economy and Society, provides an analysis of the global economic recovery post-COVID-19, focusing on the interplay between fiscal and monetary policies, social and economic challenges, and the need for structural transformation.

Main Points

1. Shaping the Recovery Momentum

• Global Growth Outlook: The consensus among chief economists is that global growth is expected to be between 5.5% to 6% in 2021, with a recovery of global GDP to pre-pandemic levels by the first half of 2022.
• Diverging Recovery Trajectories: Recovery is uneven across countries, influenced by vaccine access and government financial resources.
• Fiscal Stimulus Overview:
  • The US has implemented the CARES Act (2020), $868 billion (2020–2021), and the American Rescue Plan (2021), adding $1.844 trillion.
  • The EU has allocated €750 billion through the Next Generation EU (NGEU), with a 30% climate component.
  • China has spent ~4.7% of GDP in 2020, with a focus on public health and digital infrastructure.
• Transformative Potential: While all three fiscal packages have some transformative potential, the EU is seen as the most effective in this regard.
• Challenges:
  • There is a lack of emphasis on long-term structural transformation in many fiscal packages.
  • Political polarization in the US complicates decision-making on modernization.
  • Phasing out support needs to be done carefully to avoid triggering bankruptcy waves.
  • Inflation risks are rising due to stimulus spending and increased savings, with concerns that central banks may act too late.

2. Avoiding Economic Scarring

• Key Risks of Scarring:
  • Bankruptcy waves are the most immediate risk.
  • Labour market disruptions, including permanent drops in participation, are a major concern, especially for women in the US.
  • Global production network damage is considered the least likely.
• Labour Market Trends:
  • The US has seen a rise in job openings and worker bargaining power.
  • Women have disproportionately left the workforce, especially due to childcare challenges.
  • Gen Z has been most affected, with 78% impacted by the crisis and 39% losing jobs.
• Monetary Policy:
  • Central banks are expected to prioritize price stability, with rate hikes possibly starting in 2022.
  • Asset prices may remain disconnected from the real economy in the medium term.
  • Debt defaults in low- and middle-income countries are a risk if monetary tightening occurs.

3. Reversing Domestic Polarization and International Divergence

• Domestic Inequality:
  • The economic crisis has exacerbated inequality, particularly affecting disadvantaged groups based on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
  • Automation has deepened labour market polarization across generations.
• Social Unrest:
  • There is a significant risk of increased social unrest due to growing inequality.
• International Divides:
  • Convergence has stalled, with high-income countries having better access to fiscal support and vaccines.
  • Protectionism may increase as domestic pressures mount, despite multilateralism seeing a revival.
  • Cyberattacks and technology/trade tensions are seen as major sources of international conflict.

4. Accelerating the Climate Transition

• Climate Transition as a Priority:
  • The climate transition is critical for long-term economic stability and is expected to drive structural change.
  • Policy uncertainty remains a major barrier to private investment in the green transition.
• Twin Transformation:
  • The intersection of green and digital transformation presents opportunities for innovation and growth.
  • Firms that lead in both areas are 2.5 times more likely to become industry leaders.
• Net-Zero Targets:
  • Many economists believe 2050 is not ambitious enough and suggest earlier targets, such as before 2035.
  • Political will and business commitments are needed to achieve these goals.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • A carbon tax is seen as one of the most effective tools to achieve carbon neutrality.
  • A uniform carbon price is needed to coordinate public and private investments and support weaker households and regions.
  • Education and regulatory nudges are essential to complement the carbon tax and support green skills development.

Key Takeaways

• The global economy is recovering, but unevenly, with high-income countries leading the way.
• Fiscal stimulus is crucial, but long-term structural transformation is often overlooked.
• Social and economic polarization is increasing, especially among women and younger generations.
• Climate action must be prioritized, with green and digital transitions offering new growth opportunities.
• Central banks will likely raise interest rates in 2022, but this could trigger debt crises in low- and middle-income countries.
• International cooperation is essential to bridge gaps in vaccine access and address climate challenges.

Conclusion

The Chief Economists Outlook – June 2021 underscores the need for well-targeted fiscal and monetary policies, addressing inequality, and accelerating the climate transition. While the recovery is underway, structural transformation, social cohesion, and global cooperation will be key to ensuring long-term stability and growth.