拉丁美洲经济委员会-拉丁美洲和加勒比人口老龄化的经济影响_挑战和机遇（英）-2025_72页_1mb

Economic Impacts of Population Ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and Opportunities

Core Content

This document explores the economic implications of rapid population ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing both the challenges and opportunities it presents. It outlines the structural transformation of the region's demographics and its impact on economic growth, the labor market, and the sustainability of social policies. The analysis also highlights the potential for economic development through the integration of older persons into various sectors and the implementation of inclusive public policies.

Main Points

1. Demographic Trends

• The region is experiencing a rapid ageing process, with the population aged 65 and over expected to grow significantly.
• In 2024, about 65 million people in the region were aged 65 and over, representing 9.9% of the total population.
• By 2050, this number is projected to reach 138 million, or 18.9% of the total population.
• The fastest-growing age group is expected to be those aged 80 and over, which will triple its proportion from 1.9% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2050.

2. Economic Implications

• Labour Market: Older persons are increasingly participating in the workforce, with around 25% of those aged 65 and over working in 2024. Men are more likely to remain in the workforce than women.
• Poverty and Vulnerability: Older persons, especially women, are more vulnerable to poverty and insufficient pension coverage. In 2023, about 43% of older persons received insufficient pension incomes.
• Consumption Patterns: The consumption of older persons is lower than that of younger age groups, but their spending patterns shift towards services such as health and care as they age.
• Life-Cycle Deficit: Older persons face a life-cycle deficit, where their consumption exceeds their income, especially in the last stages of life.
• Support Ratio: The support ratio (producers to consumers) is expected to decline as the proportion of older persons increases, affecting economic sustainability.

3. Opportunities for Economic Growth

• The ageing population presents opportunities for growth in sectors such as health care, pharmaceuticals, financial services, technology, tourism, and adapted housing.
• The concept of the silver economy refers to the economic opportunities created by the needs of older persons, particularly in consumption and services.
• The longevity economy encompasses broader economic activities related to the increasing lifespan and associated changes in behavior and consumption.
• The generational economy focuses on the flow of resources and economic activities across generations, emphasizing the role of intergenerational transfers and the potential for a second demographic dividend as the population ages.

4. Public Policies and Institutional Frameworks

• The document examines public policies in South Korea and other countries that have successfully addressed the challenges and opportunities of an ageing population.
• Key policy areas include:
  • Inclusion of older persons in the labor market.
  • Lifelong learning and digital inclusion.
  • Strengthening health and care systems.
  • Creating inclusive and accessible spaces.
  • Promoting tourism and economic opportunities.
  • Establishing an institutional framework to protect the rights of older persons.

5. Challenges and Inequalities

• The region faces unique challenges due to its lower levels of economic development, faster pace of ageing, lack of established welfare states, and higher structural inequality.
• Older persons, especially women, Indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants, migrants, and persons with disabilities, are more vulnerable due to intersecting forms of discrimination and exclusion.

Key Information

• Demographic Projections: The population aged 65 and over is expected to grow from 9.9% in 2024 to 18.9% by 2050, with the 80+ age group tripling in size.
• Economic Concepts: The document introduces the silver economy, longevity economy, and generational economy as frameworks to understand the economic impacts of ageing.
• Life-Cycle Deficit: Older persons experience a life-cycle deficit, where consumption exceeds income, and this is expected to increase in the future.
• Public Policy Recommendations: To harness the economic opportunities of ageing, the document recommends integrating demographic change into public policies, investing in health and social protection, and ensuring the inclusion and rights of older persons.

Conclusion

The economic impacts of population ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean are both challenges and opportunities. The region must adapt its economic and social policies to address the needs of an ageing population, promote productivity and inclusion, and ensure the sustainability of social systems. The integration of older persons into the economy and society is essential to maximize the benefits of the silver and longevity economies and to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable development model.