2026年中欧电商市场现状白皮书挖掘电商新阶段战略优势_51页_3mb

Summary of "The State of E-commerce in Central Europe in 2026"

Core Content

E-commerce in Central Europe has entered a new phase of stable and predictable growth following a period of pandemic-driven acceleration and subsequent correction. The market is mature, with growth rates stabilizing around 9% CAGR and e-commerce revenue projected to reach nearly €224bn by 2027. However, the region is not a single market but a collection of markets at different stages of development, each with unique characteristics and growth dynamics.

Germany dominates the e-commerce market in Central Europe, accounting for around 57% of total regional revenue by 2026, with Poland and Switzerland contributing 15% and 9%, respectively. This highlights the uneven distribution of e-commerce activity across the region, with Germany being the most developed market, followed by Austria and Switzerland, while Poland and Greece are still in earlier stages of online adoption.

Main Points

• Market Maturity and Growth

  • E-commerce is becoming more embedded in consumer preferences, with higher online penetration leading to slower growth rates.
  • The focus of growth is shifting from acquiring new buyers to increasing buying frequency among existing customers.
  • The e-commerce revenue equation is evolving, with purchase frequency now playing a more significant role than average order value (AOV).

• Cross-Border E-commerce

  • Cross-border shopping is a structural component of e-commerce in Central Europe, with varying significance by country.
  • Smaller or less developed markets tend to rely more on international retailers due to limited local supply and fewer large domestic players.
  • Larger, more mature markets like Germany show lower cross-border spend, as domestic ecosystems provide sufficient product breadth.

• Category Mix and Buying Frequency

  • The category mix in mature Central European markets is relatively stable, with electronics, fashion, and groceries being key categories.
  • Buying frequency varies by category and market, with some categories (like hobby & leisure and groceries) showing stronger frequency growth.
  • Frequency is now a key indicator of e-commerce maturity, reflecting how deeply online shopping is integrated into daily consumer behavior.

• Agentic Commerce as a New Paradigm

  • Agentic commerce is emerging as a transformative force, leveraging AI to support consumer decision-making and automate parts of the purchase journey.
  • AI agents can assist with discovery, narrowing choices, and executing transactions within defined boundaries, shifting some decision-making from humans to AI systems.
  • This shift is not immediate but will unfold gradually, with human-led and agent-led purchase journeys coexisting for years.

• Consumer Needs and Enablers

  • E-commerce growth is driven by timeless consumer needs such as fair value perception, secure environment, effort minimization, and decision confidence.
  • Hygienic enablers like cybersecurity and basic checkout rails are now table stakes, ensuring transactions can occur without friction.
  • Differentiating levers, such as personalization, loyalty programs, and subscriptions, are used to enhance consumer engagement and drive repeat purchases.

Key Information

• E-commerce Growth Trends:

  • Central Europe's e-commerce market grew from €112bn in 2019 to €191bn in 2025, and is expected to reach €224bn by 2027.
  • Growth is becoming more consistent and less event-driven, reflecting a shift toward a more predictable market environment.

• Regional Differences:

  • Germany is the largest and most mature market, with a high per capita spend and a well-established online retail ecosystem.
  • Poland and Greece are growing faster due to lower online penetration, while Switzerland shows a high per capita spend despite its small size.

• Purchase Frequency Dynamics:

  • Purchase frequency has increased across all major categories, especially in high-penetration areas like groceries and hobby & leisure.
  • Frequency is becoming the primary growth lever in mature markets, as first-time buyer acquisition becomes more limited.

• Agentic Commerce

  • Agentic commerce introduces AI-driven systems that can support or even act on behalf of consumers in purchasing decisions.
  • It redefines the purchase journey by reducing effort, simplifying choices, and improving product recommendations.
  • The adoption of agentic commerce is expected to increase gradually, influenced by trust, context, and local conditions.

• Strategic Implications

  • For merchants and ecosystem players, the challenge is not whether agentic commerce will matter, but how to remain relevant in this new landscape.
  • Strategic focus should shift toward enhancing customer experience, convenience, and relevance to support repeat engagement.
  • E-commerce innovation in Central Europe will be shaped by local consumer expectations, regulatory frameworks, and payment infrastructures, rather than direct replication of global models.

Conclusion

The e-commerce landscape in Central Europe is evolving toward a more customer-centric and technology-driven future. As markets mature, growth will increasingly depend on repeat engagement and the ability to meet consumer needs through both hygienic and differentiating levers. Agentic commerce represents a structural shift, redefining how consumers interact with digital commerce and offering new opportunities for merchants to enhance relevance and customer retention.