2023-11-01-国际清算银行-疫情导致的集装箱运费上涨_在全球化世界中评估其国内影响_42页_2mb

Pandemic-induced Increases in Container Freight Rates: Assessing Domestic Effects

This study analyzes the welfare effects of COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions in the shipping industry, which led to historically high container freight rates. The research focuses on Colombia and employs a dynamic, quantitative Ricardian trade model with input-output linkages.

Methodology

• Uses instrumental variable approach to estimate the trade elasticity to freight rates, leveraging heterogeneous pandemic-related lockdown timing and pre-pandemic port infrastructure.
• Employs "exact hat algebra" technique to solve the dynamic model and perform counterfactual exercises, starting from a 2018 baseline economy.
• Elasticity estimate (-1.04) aligns with previous literature, providing a model-consistent link between observed freight rate changes and transportation cost shocks.

Key Findings

• The global increase in freight rates during the pandemic generated a 1.4% welfare loss for Colombia, attributed solely to direct effects.
• The 2020/2021 freight rate increases caused:
  • A moderate labor reallocation effect: 0.12% (≈28.6K) additional workers moved towards non-employment, with a shift from tradable to non-tradable sectors.
• Indirect effects (where freight rates increase on routes not involving Colombia) improved Colombia's relative trade openness, generating gains that offset part of the welfare loss.
• Elastisity effects depend on whether the shock increases freight in routes involving the country versus other routes, which influences labor reallocation directions.

Contribution

• Demonstrates how quantitative trade models can pinpoint the relative contributions of global versus domestic factors to welfare losses.
• Highlights welfare implications of pandemic-induced shipping disruptions for policymakers in globalized economies.