20260827-招银国际-MINIMAX-W-00100.HK-1H26_review_strong_monetization_extending_performance-cost_frontier_of_large_model_5页_1mb

MiniMax Group (100 HK) Summary

Core Content

MiniMax Group (100 HK) reported strong performance in 1H26, with total revenue growing by 283% YoY to US$117mn, exceeding Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimates by 17%. The company's focus on monetization and performance-cost optimization has driven significant improvements in revenue and cost efficiency.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • Revenue in 1H26 reached US$117mn, a 283% YoY increase, surpassing VA estimates.
  • Open Platform and AI-based enterprise services revenue increased by 703% YoY to US$73.9mn, contributing 63% of total revenue.
  • AI-native products revenue grew by 101% YoY to US$42.6mn, making up 37% of total revenue.

• Token Consumption and Monetization:

  • Token consumption in July 2026 was 20x that of January 2026.
  • Annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed US$800mn in August 2026, up from US$150mn/US$400mn in February/May 2026.
  • Enterprise customers now account for ~80% of ARR, compared to ~30% in FY26.

• Model Launches and Innovation:

  • New models M3 and H3 have contributed to increased token consumption and monetization.
  • Three major models are expected to be launched in 2H26:
    • M3.1: Based on the 430bn M3 model, focuses on enhancing inference efficiency and agentic capability.
    • M3 Pro: Scales up to 3T parameters while maintaining cost and speed advantages through architectural innovation.
    • H3.1: Enhances video generation capabilities based on user feedback.

• Gross Margin and Net Profit:

  • Gross margin expanded by 5.7ppts YoY to 17.9% in 1H26, driven by AI infrastructure efficiency.
  • Adjusted net loss widened to US$293mn in 1H26, due to increased cloud services expenses.
  • Adjusted net margin improved from -456% in 1H25 to -251% in 1H26.

• Financial Forecasts:

  • Updated revenue forecasts for FY26–FY28 are US$517mn, US$1,389mn, and US$2,682mn, respectively.
  • Adjusted net profit forecasts are US$714mn, US$1,086mn, and US$1,031mn for FY26–FY28.
  • Target price is HK$580.0, based on a 50x FY26E P/S multiple.

• Valuation:

  • The company is valued at HK$580.0 per share (US$25.8bn), based on a 50x P/S multiple.
  • Valuation is in line with the average P/S multiple of global AI peers.

• Business Outlook:

  • The company plans to continue maximizing model intelligence while minimizing inference costs.
  • Management expects GPM to improve in 2H26 due to diminishing token-compensation headwinds and larger model launches.

Key Information

• Shareholding:

  • Yan Junjie: 22.7%
  • Alibaba: 11.4%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: HK$105,818.3mn
  • 3-month trailing volume: HK$2,552.7mn
  • Current Price: HK$303.00
  • Target Price: HK$580.00 (up from HK$570.00)
  • Up/Downside: 91.4%

• Risks:

  • Fierce competition in the LLM industry.
  • Continuous R&D investment may affect profitability and cash flow.
  • Potential challenges in attracting and retaining key talent.

Business Forecasts

Valuation Comparison

Analyst Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Summary Table

Key Highlights

• Monetization: Strong growth in API calls and Token Plan adoption has boosted revenue.
• Model Development: Launch of M3.1, M3 Pro, and H3.1 aims to extend performance-cost frontier.
• Financial Metrics: Improved GPM and net margin despite losses.
• Valuation: Target price reflects 50x P/S multiple, aligned with global AI peers.
• Risks: Intense competition, R&D costs, and talent retention are key risks.

Analysts

• Saiyi HE, CFA
• Wentao LU, CFA
• Ye TAO, CFA
• Shuyin GUO

Disclaimer

• The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored for individual investors.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses or damages arising from reliance on this report.
• The report may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.