2021-09-14-莱坊-Forecasting_Hong_Kong_Housing_Prices_Correlation_Report_September_2021_4页_311kb

In September 2021, Knight Frank Research issued a recap analyzing Hong Kong housing prices, emphasizing a weakened correlation with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) since 2020, attributed to structural breaks. The study uses a property-economy cycle model, dividing market dynamics into four quadrants—Recovery, Expansion, Over-expansion, and Recession—based on residential price growth and real GDP growth. Historically (1997–Q2 2021), cycles typically followed a standard sequence but were shortened by events like the SARS outbreak and global financial crisis, with distortions from social unrest and COVID-19. The current cycle is elongated due to these unprecedented shocks, lasting from Q4 2018 to Q4 2020 as a severe recession. Forecasts anticipate Hong Kong GDP growth at 5.5–6.5% for 2021, significantly above the 25-year average of 2.9%, supporting a shift from recession to expansion. Consequently, housing prices are expected to rise by up to 8% year-on-year by year-end, driven by low interest rates, economic rebound, and mainland demand, moving into the expansion stage.