20220328-招银国际-美团-W-03690.HK-Prioritizing_high-quality_growth_5页_857kb

报告摘要

Meituan (3690 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an update on Meituan's financial performance and outlook for the year ending December 2021 (4Q21) and beyond. The analysis highlights the company's financial results, growth expectations, and valuation metrics, along with the analysts' recommendations and market context.

Key Financial Performance

Revenue and Growth

4Q21 Revenue: RMB 49,523 million (+31% YoY), in line with consensus.
Segment Revenue Growth:
- Food Delivery: +21% YoY
- In-store, Hotel & Travel: +22% YoY
- New Initiatives: +59% YoY

Adjusted Net Profit

4Q21 Adj. Net Loss: RMB 3.9 billion, better than the consensus of -RMB 5.8 billion.
FY22E Adj. Net Profit: -RMB 8,875 million (vs. previous estimate of -RMB 4,811 million)
FY23E Adj. Net Profit: RMB 9,674 million (vs. previous estimate of RMB 10,839 million)
FY24E Adj. Net Profit: RMB 23,903 million (vs. previous estimate of RMB 35,532 million)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

4Q21 EPS: -RMB 0.65 (vs. consensus of -RMB 0.58)
FY22E EPS: -RMB 1.39
FY23E EPS: RMB 1.48
FY24E EPS: RMB 3.56

Financial Forecast and Adjustments

Revenue Forecast Adjustments

Rev Forecast Trim: 2-4% for FY22-23E
Margin Forecast Trim: 1-2 ppts for FY22-23E
Target Price (TP): Cut to HK$250 (from previous TP of HK$332)

FY22E Revenue Forecast

Food Delivery: +13% YoY
In-store, Hotel & Travel: +27% YoY
New Initiatives: +46% YoY

FY22E Adjusted OPM

Food Delivery: 5.0%
In-store, Hotel & Travel: 41%
New Initiatives: -42%

Analyst View and Recommendation

Outlook

Short-term (ST) Headwinds: Expected to be manageable, particularly due to the impact of the epidemic in 1Q22E.
Long-term (LT) Growth: Confident in Meituan's ability to maintain high organic growth with strong barriers to entry.

Recommendation

Maintain BUY: The stock is viewed as having potential for over 15% return over the next 12 months.

Market and Company Data

Stock Performance

Current Price: HK$135.0
Target Price: HK$250.0 (+85.2% upside)
Market Cap: HK$921,782 million
Avg 3 mths t/o: HK$5,970.13 million
52w High/Low: HK$338.0 / HK$103.5

Shareholding Structure

Tencent: 19.43%
Sequoia Capital: 5.0%
Baillie Gifford: 5.0%

Share Performance (3-month)

Absolute Return: -30.1%
Relative Return: -25.7%

Valuation Metrics

P/E and P/S

P/E (FY23E): 73x
P/S (FY23E): 2.3x

SOTP Valuation

Enterprise Value: US$194.4 billion
Equity Value: US$210.9 billion
Valuation per Share (FY23E): HK$264.0
Discounted Back to FY22E: HK$235.7
Average 2022 & 2023 Valuation: HK$249.9

Key Ratios

Profitability

Operating Margin (FY22E): -5.7%
Pre-tax Margin (FY22E): -5.8%
Net Margin (FY22E): -4.0%

Growth Rates

Revenue Growth (FY22E): 24.8%
Gross Profit Growth (FY22E): 43.1%
Net Profit Growth (FY22E): -4.0%

Returns

ROE (FY22E): -9.7%
ROA (FY22E): -4.0%
ROE (FY24E): 12.2%

Risks and Disclosures

Risks: The report highlights that there are risks involved in transacting in any securities, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Disclosures:
- The report is not tailored to individual investors.
- CMBIGM does not provide investment advice.
- The report may contain inaccuracies and is subject to change.
- There may be conflicts of interest due to investment banking relationships.

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
The analyst confirms no trading activity within 30 days before or after the report's release.
No direct financial interest in the companies discussed.

CMB International Global Markets Limited

A subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited, which is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.
Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong.

Additional Information

The report is intended for specific investors and is not to be distributed to others without consent.
The report is subject to legal restrictions in the UK, US, and Singapore.

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