2023-10-20-美联储-论负利率的否定性_75页_608kb

The paper analyzes the long-term effects of negative interest rates (NIR) using a dynamic general equilibrium model with commercial banks holding reserves and funding investments with retail deposits. The central bank sets the interest rate on reserves, which can be negative (NIR), and controls reserve stock via open-market operations. The model highlights that NIR distorts interbank liabilities settlement mechanisms.

Key findings include:

• Investment Distortions: NIR leads to overinvestment by small-scale projects and underinvestment by large-scale projects due to binding collateral constraints and limited pass-through to retail deposits.
• Welfare Effects: Long-term welfare decreases under all transmission regimes (perfect or imperfect). A short-run expansionary effect may occur but is not sustained.
• Bank Profitability: Exemptions from NIR partially offset profitability concerns but do not alleviate investment distortions.
• Currency Value: NIR reduces a country's currency value, serving as a tool to counter appreciation, though aggregate reserves increase with quantitative easing.
• Transmission Asymmetry: Compared to positive rates, NIR has asymmetric effects due to cash availability and imperfect transmission, leading to overinvestment and underinvestment depending on the transmission mechanism.

The paper contrasts with previous lit review and empirical findings. NIR is contractionary in the long run, welfare declines, and exemptions are effective for profitability but not for mitigating economic distortions. The conclusions suggest NIR is an ineffective long-term policy for stimulating the economy, with only short-term, context-dependent benefits.