2025-06-16-Jefferies-2025年飓风季_早期迹象表明又是活跃的一年_37页_2mb

Summary of P&C Insurance/Insurtech Equity Research June 16, 2025

• 2025 Hurricane Season: Forecast indicates an active season with a 51% probability of a major hurricane landing in the U.S., compared to the 20th-century average of 43%. Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are elevated but below 2023/2024 peaks. La Niña may influence storm formation later in the season.

• Impact on Insurers: Higher insured losses could harden reinsurance markets. Primary insurers may see ROE declines in active years but stock performance may not lag due to price increases and positive catalysts.

• Reinsurance Demand and Returns: Reinsurers may see higher returns if losses are moderate, with pricing power being key for stock performance. A major loss could limit returns but drive further market hardening.

• Stock Performance: In active years, reinsurance stocks often outperform due to pricing expectations, while primary insurers may vary based on exposure. Hurricane "trades" yield short-term gains for reins