20260827-招银国际-绿茶集团-06831.HK-Rapid_store_rollout_in_1H26_SSSG_pressure_to_ease_in_2H26_6页_1mb

Green Tea Group (6831 HK) Summary

Core Content

Green Tea Group is a Hong Kong-listed company that operates a chain of fast casual restaurants, primarily focused on the Chinese market. The company has been actively expanding its store network and is exploring international markets as a new growth driver. The report highlights the company's financial performance in the first half of 2026 (1H26), as well as its strategic initiatives and future outlook.

Main Points

• Revenue and Profit Growth: In 1H26, Green Tea Group's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 16.8% and 16.9% YoY, respectively, reaching RMB 2,675 million and RMB 294 million. However, these figures slightly underperformed the Bloomberg FY26E consensus.

• Store Expansion: Green Tea Group added 124 new stores in 1H26, bringing the total to 733, which is a 46% YoY increase. This is nearly two-thirds of the 200-store target for FY26. New stores outperformed existing ones in terms of dine-in sales per sqm and store-level margins.

• Performance Drivers: The company's improved performance is attributed to a better new-restaurant model, cost and expense control, and format optimization (smaller floor area, denser seating, and lower fit-out costs). These factors have also led to a shorter payback period for new stores.

• SSSG Pressure: The company faced a significant slowdown in same-store sales growth (SSSG) of -9.7% in 1H26, mainly due to a high base from the previous year's food-delivery subsidy war and weaker consumption. The SSSG pressure is expected to ease in 2H26 as the high base effect diminishes.

• Overseas Expansion: Green Tea Group has a clear plan for overseas expansion, with 22 stores operating in 1H26. The overseas revenue reached RMB 163 million (+267% YoY), with a profit surge of more than 2x. The company is planning to expand to Ho Chi Minh City in 2H26, and to Australia and Europe by 2027.

• Target Price and Rating: The company is covered with a BUY rating, and the target price is set at HK$9.27, which represents a 54% upside from the current price of HK$6.00. The valuation is based on an 8.6x FY26E P/E ratio, which is a 40% discount to the average of selected restaurant peers.

Key Information

• Financial Highlights:

  • Revenue: RMB 2,675 million in 1H26, up 16.8% YoY.
  • Adjusted net profit: RMB 294 million in 1H26, up 16.9% YoY.
  • SSSG: -9.7% in 1H26, compared to -0.8% in FY25.
  • Gross margin: 68.8% in 1H26, up 0.8% YoY.
  • Net margin: 10.9% in 1H26, up 0.7% YoY.
  • Adjusted net profit margin: 11.0% in 1H26, up 0.9% YoY.

• Store Growth:

  • Total stores: 733 as of 1H26, up 46% YoY.
  • New stores: Outperformed legacy stores in sales and margins.
  • Payback period: 12.5 months for new stores, compared to 19.4 months for legacy ones.

• Overseas Expansion:

  • Current overseas stores: 22, on track to reach 30 by year-end.
  • Payback period for Singapore stores: 7–8 months.
  • Piloting a Jiangnan dim sum format in Hong Kong.
  • Plans for store expansion in Southeast Asia, Australia, and Europe by 2027.

• Valuation:

  • Current price: HK$6.00.
  • Target price: HK$9.27.
  • P/E ratio: 8.6x FY26E.
  • P/B ratio: 1.9x in 2026, down from 3.7x in 2023.
  • Dividend yield: 10.7% in 2026, up from 9.7% in 2025.

• Risks:

  • Weaker consumption environment.
  • Slower-than-expected store rollout.
  • Weaker-than-expected cost and expense control.

Financial Summary

Income Statement (RMB mn)

Balance Sheet (RMB mn)

Cash Flow (RMB mn)

Growth Rates

Profitability

Valuation Ratios

Valuation Comps

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer and that no part of his or her compensation was directly or indirectly related to the specific views expressed in this report.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclosures

• This report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred from relying on the information in this report.
• The report may contain information based on public sources and is subject to change without notice.
• CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and may make investment decisions inconsistent with the report's recommendations.

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