2021-09-30-海牙战略研究中心-亚美尼亚和南高加索的未来（英）_52页_2mb

Armenia and the Future of the South Caucasus

Analysis of Current Situation

• The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war ended with Azerbaijan's military victory.
• Russian peacekeeping forces control the region, preventing further large-scale violence.
• Hostilities along the border continue, and resolution remains elusive.
• The conflict shows characteristics of intractability, including unresolved issues, mutual animosity, and the absence of a Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS).

Theoretical Framework

• Frozen Conflict: Ongoing but dormant conflicts with no formal resolution.
• Intractable Conflict: Characterized by persistent resistance, unresolved grievances, and mutual denigration.
• Ripeness Conditions: Necessary for resolution include presence of MHS and a Way Out.
• Conflict Management: Necessary when resolution is not feasible, aiming to mitigate negative effects.

Key Findings on Armenia's Position

• Armenia is a shadow state, heavily dependent on Russia for security and arms.
• Azerbaijan is a pivot state, attracting influence from great powers.
• Persistent regional trends weaken Armenia's position, including Russia's assertiveness and Turkey's rise.
• Medium-term trends suggest Armenia's position may further deteriorate.

Policy Options and Recommendations

• Strategic Patience: Allow time for trust-building and development.
• UN Peacekeeping: Explore international administration with credible deterrence.
• Track II Dialogue: Facilitate unofficial dialogue channels.
• Economic Cooperation: Link aid to democratization and prosperity.

Conclusion

• Conflict resolution requires Russia's engagement and international cooperation.
• Managing the conflict to ensure security, prosperity, and regional stability is key.