海牙战略研究中心-亚美尼亚和南高加索的未来（英）-2021.10-52页_2mb

Summary of "Armenia and the future of the South Caucasus"

Core Content

This report examines the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, analyzing its historical context, theoretical underpinnings, and the role of regional and international actors in shaping its future. It explores how the conflict remains unresolved despite a recent ceasefire, and outlines policy options to manage the conflict and promote long-term peace in the South Caucasus.

Main Questions and Structure

The report is structured around the following main questions:

1. What are the main events shaping the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?

   • The conflict has been ongoing for over three decades, with a major escalation in September 2020. This led to a six-week war, resulting in significant casualties and a Russian-brokered ceasefire that transferred control of the region to Azerbaijan, with Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
   • Previous ceasefire attempts by the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the U.S., have failed, and the current ceasefire lacks follow-up negotiations for a durable resolution.

2. How have conflicts been durably resolved in the past?

   • The report reviews theories of conflict resolution, including frozen conflicts, intractability, entrapment, and the roles of pivot and shadow states. It emphasizes the importance of Mutually Hurting Stalemates (MHS) and Mutually Enticing Opportunities (MEOs) as necessary conditions for conflict resolution.

3. What are the interests and actions of the regional and international players involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

   • The conflict is deeply embedded in the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, the EU, and the U.S.
   • Russia is the dominant external power, acting as a mediator but not a full broker for a definitive resolution.
   • Azerbaijan, with its strategic assets, is considered a pivot state, while Armenia is a shadow state, dependent on Russian support.

4. How is Armenia embedded in the regional and international order?

   • Armenia's position is shaped by its limited power relative to Azerbaijan, its reliance on Russia for security, and its political and ideological stance.
   • Regional and international trends are expected to further weaken Armenia's position in the coming decade, particularly due to the shifting balance of power and the potential decline of Russian support.

5. What steps can be taken to manage the conflict and promote peace?

   • The report outlines policy options aimed at managing the conflict, mitigating its negative effects, and creating conditions for a durable resolution.
   • These include enhancing conflict management through international cooperation, addressing the drivers of intractability, and ensuring the security and prosperity of the affected populations.

Key Points and Main Arguments

1. Conflict Overview

• The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been ongoing for over three decades.
• It is a frozen conflict, with no formal resolution, and remains close to or in a state of violence.
• The 2020 war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, giving Azerbaijan control over about one-third of the disputed territory.
• The conflict is viewed by Armenia as a fight for self-determination, while Azerbaijan sees it as a violation of its sovereignty.

2. Theoretical Framework

• Frozen conflicts are characterized by a stalemate where neither side makes progress, and the conflict is not resolved but merely paused.
• Intractable conflicts are those that resist resolution due to self-reinforcing characteristics such as protraction, identity polarization, profitability, absence of ripeness, and incompatible solutions.
• Ripeness is a necessary condition for conflict resolution, referring to a moment when all parties are willing to negotiate and accept compromise.
• Shadow states (like Armenia) are heavily dependent on a single power (Russia), while pivot states (like Azerbaijan) have the ability to influence larger powers.

3. Role of Regional and International Actors

• Russia is the dominant external actor, with leverage over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. It has enforced the ceasefire but is not committed to a full resolution.
• Azerbaijan is a pivot state due to its strategic military, economic, and ideological assets, which make it more capable of influencing the policies of larger powers.
• Turkey has supported Azerbaijan militarily, while the EU and the U.S. have advocated for a peaceful resolution through the OSCE Minsk Group.

4. Armenia's Position and Trends

• Armenia is in a vulnerable position, with limited military and political power.
• The conflict has not been resolved due to the absence of a mutually hurting stalemate, which is essential for peace negotiations.
• Long-term trends are expected to further weaken Armenia's position, including the decline of Russian support, increased Azerbaijani power, and shifting regional dynamics.

5. Policy Options for Conflict Management

• The report proposes conflict management strategies to address the drivers of intractability, such as polarized identities, profit-taking, and escalatory cycles.
• These strategies aim to prevent further violence, enhance security, and promote prosperity in the region.
• International actors are encouraged to support diplomatic efforts, economic cooperation, and peace-building initiatives to foster a more stable and secure South Caucasus.

Conclusion

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved due to a combination of internal intractability and external dynamics. Armenia's position as a shadow state and Azerbaijan's role as a pivot state contribute to the conflict's persistence. A durable resolution requires ripeness, mutual willingness to compromise, and international support. The report emphasizes the need for conflict management and policy initiatives to create the conditions for a peaceful and sustainable resolution in the future.