2025-05-23-Jefferies-艾姆库制药（EMCURE）_Emcure第四季度加速增长_买入_12页_603kb

Emcure Pharma Equity Research Summary

Rating and Target:

• Equity Research Rating: BUY.
• Price Target: INR 1,400 (up 20% from INR 1,171.50), driven by revised guidance.

Key Highlights:

• 4Q Performance:

  • Revenue INR 21.2 billion (+19% YoY), EBITDA INR 3.9 billion (+5% YoY), PAT INR 1.9 billion (+64% YoY).
  • India region: 25% YoY growth (10% organic), beating estimates; RoW region showed 39% YoY growth.
  • Canada and Europe slowest, with 6% and 2% YoY growth respectively.

• FY26 Guidance:

  • Target 13-14% revenue growth, 150 basis points EBITDA margin expansion.
  • India to achieve double-digit growth, outperforming industry benchmarks; Europe high-single-digit, Canada mid-to-high teens, EM 20%.

• Strategic Initiatives:

  • Acquisition of UK-based Manx Healthcare for GBP 20m, expected to add ~150bps growth in FY26.
  • Strong pipeline: Differentiated products launched (e.g., Orofer XT, Vylda); new launches in gynaecology, biosimilars (e.g., Amphotericin B in Europe).
  • R&D focus: Bevacizumab in phase-3 trials, R-Asparaginase for Oncology.

• Financial Projections:

  • Revenue CAGR 11-13% pre FY26E, PAT CAGR 24-31%.
  • EPS to increase by 5-6% in 2026, with steady margin expansion.

• Valuation and Risks:

  • Valued at 24x FY27 EPS; upside for 26x (INR 1,570) via upside scenario.
  • Key risks: Delayed new launches impacting exports, slower margin expansion, and increased competition in India.

Recommendation:
Maintain BUY rating due to strong domestic growth, R&D focus, and potential from acquisitions and pipeline.