2017年-ECB欧洲央行_The_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_SPF_–_Third_Quarter_of_2017_11页_237kb

报告摘要

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2017 provides updated economic expectations for key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate, across different time horizons.

Inflation Expectations

Overall HICP Inflation

2017: 1.5%
2018: 1.4%
2019: 1.6%
Longer-term (2022): 1.8%
Change from previous quarter (Q2 2017): Downward revision of 0.1 p.p. for all three years.
Comparison with other surveys: SPF expectations are comparable to other surveys (within 0.1 p.p.).

HICP Inflation Excluding Food and Energy

2017: 1.1%
2018: 1.3%
2019: 1.5%
Longer-term (2022): 1.7%
Change from previous quarter (Q2 2017): Upward revision of 0.1 p.p. for 2017; no change for 2018 and 2019.
Reason for revision: Improved growth outlook and stronger-than-expected data for 2017.
Aggregate probability distribution: Shifted towards the center for 2017, and increased in the lower range for 2018 and 2019.
Uncertainty: Remained elevated compared to the "great moderation" period, with a slight downward risk balance.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

2017: 1.9%
2018: 1.8%
2019: 1.6%
Longer-term (2022): 1.6%
Change from previous quarter (Q2 2017): Upward revisions of 0.2 p.p. for 2017 and 2018, and 0.1 p.p. for 2019.
Reasons for upward revisions: Stronger-than-expected hard and soft data, self-sustaining growth in the euro area, healthy consumer spending, continued employment growth, and recovery in business investment.
Political uncertainty: Declined, contributing to more optimistic growth outlooks.
Aggregate probability distribution: Shifted towards higher GDP growth outcomes in the near term, with no significant change in the longer term.
Risk balance: Balanced at shorter horizons, with some upside risks related to sentiment indicators and potential downside risks from external factors like geopolitical tensions, China's economic slowdown, and US policy uncertainty.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

2017: 9.2%
2018: 8.8%
2019: 8.4%
Longer-term (2022): 8.1%
Change from previous quarter (Q2 2017): Downward revisions of 0.2 p.p. for 2017, 0.3 p.p. for 2018, 2019, and the longer term.
Aggregate probability distribution: Shifted towards lower unemployment outcomes at all horizons.
Risk balance: Balanced at shorter horizons, slightly to the upside in the longer term.
Reason for upside risk: Productivity recovery in baseline forecasts could reduce the demand for labor, leading to lower unemployment.

Other Variables and Conditioning Assumptions

USD Oil Prices: Expected to increase by about 10% by 2019.
USD/EUR Exchange Rate: Expected to remain broadly flat over the next four quarters, then strengthen.
ECB Refinancing Rate: Expected to stay at zero until 2019.
Labour Cost Growth: Expected to increase slowly.

Detailed Assumptions

ECB Interest Rate (Main Refinancing Operations):
- 2017: ~0%
- 2018: ~0%
- 2019: ~0.3%
USD/EUR Exchange Rate:
- Increased by ~5% since the April survey.
- Expected to remain flat for the next four quarters, then strengthen.
Oil Prices (USD):
- 2017: USD 52
- 2018: USD 55
- 2019: USD 57
- Euro terms: Oil prices are expected to be ~9% lower than in the previous survey.
Compensation per Employee Growth:
- 2017: 1.6%
- 2018: 1.8%
- 2019: 1.9%
- 2022: 2.0%
- Change: No change compared with the previous survey.

Key Takeaways

Inflation expectations declined slightly for the near term, but remained stable in the longer term.
Real GDP growth expectations improved for 2017, 2018, and 2019 due to stronger economic data and reduced political uncertainty.
Unemployment rate expectations continued to decline, with a slightly upward risk balance in the long term.
Other variables such as oil prices, exchange rates, and labor costs were also assessed, with a focus on their impact on inflation and growth expectations.

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