2016年-ECB欧洲央行_The_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_SPF_-_Second_Quarter_of_2016_12页_372kb

报告摘要

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) - Second Quarter of 2016

Core Content Summary

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2016 provides updated economic expectations for inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate in the euro area. The survey reflects the views of professional forecasters and is compared with other forecasts and projections, such as those from the ECB staff, Consensus Economics, and the Euro Zone Barometer.

Key Findings

1. Inflation Expectations

2016: Average inflation expectation is 0.3%, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2017: Average inflation expectation is 1.3%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2018: Inflation expectation remains unchanged at 1.6%.
Longer-term (2020): Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 1.8%.
Factors Affecting Revisions:
- Lower oil prices were the main driver of the downward revisions.
- Weak global demand and a stronger USD/EUR exchange rate also contributed.
Probability Distributions:
- 2016: Most likely outcome in the 0.0–0.4% range (down from 1.0–1.4%).
- 2017: Most likely outcome in the 1.0–1.4% range.
- 2018: Most likely outcome in the 1.5–1.9% range, with increased probability mass on the lower side of the mean.
- Negative inflation probability: 20% for 2016, 2–4% for 2017 and 2018.
Risk Outlook:
- Risks to the baseline inflation outlook are mostly on the downside, except for 2016 where upside risks were perceived.

2. Real GDP Growth Expectations

2016: Average real GDP growth is 1.5%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2017: Average real GDP growth is 1.6%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2018: Real GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.7%.
Longer-term (2020): Real GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.7%.
Factors Affecting Revisions:
- Lower carryover growth due to disappointing recent data.
- Domestic demand remains a key driver of growth, supported by low energy prices.
- Monetary and fiscal policies are expected to offset external demand headwinds from emerging markets.
Probability Distributions:
- 2016: Probability of growth in the 1.5–1.9% range decreased to 35% (from 40% in Q1).
- 2017: Probability of growth in the 1.5–1.9% range decreased to 35%.
- 2018: Probability of growth in the 1.5–1.9% range increased to 33%.
Risk Outlook:
- Risks to GDP growth are tilted to the downside for all three years.
- Downside risks include a possible slowdown in China and other emerging economies, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty in Europe.
- Upside risks include structural reforms in some European countries.

3. Unemployment Rate Expectations

2016: Average unemployment rate is 10.1%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2017: Average unemployment rate is 9.7%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2018: Average unemployment rate is 9.3%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter.
Longer-term (2020): Unemployment rate is expected to be 8.8%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Factors Affecting Revisions:
- Structural reforms are expected to improve labour market flexibility and reduce input costs.
- Domestic growth is seen as moderate but with potential to have a stronger impact on unemployment reduction.
Risk Outlook:
- Risks to unemployment rate expectations are tilted to the upside for all horizons.
- These upside risks mirror downside risks to GDP growth, including macroeconomic uncertainty and wage growth.
- The mean of the probability distribution is higher than the average point forecast, indicating upside risk.

4. Other Variables and Conditioning Assumptions

Oil Prices:
- Expected to average USD 38 per barrel in Q2 2016, rising to USD 45 in Q1 2017, and USD 55 in 2018.
- Oil prices in euro terms are expected to be lower by 13–14% in 2016 due to the USD/EUR exchange rate.
USD/EUR Exchange Rate:
- Expected to fluctuate around 1.10 until Q1 2017, then slightly strengthen.
- This is 2–3% higher than in the previous SPF round.
Compensation per Employee:
- Annual growth is expected to be 1.5% in 2016, 1.7% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, and 2.0% in 2020.
Eurosystem's Main Refinancing Rate:
- Expected to remain at or close to 0% in 2016 and 2017, rising slightly to 0.2% in 2018.
- The rate is 0.05 percentage points lower in 2016, 0.10 percentage points lower in 2017, and 0.20 percentage points lower in 2018 compared to the previous round.

Comparison with Other Forecasts

Variable	SPF Q2 2016	ECB Staff (Mar. 2016)	Consensus Economics	Euro Zone Barometer
HICP inflation	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
	1.3%	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%
	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.7%
	1.8%	-	1.9%	1.9%
Real GDP growth	1.5%	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%
	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.7%
	1.7%	1.8%	1.5%	1.6%
	1.7%	-	1.4%	1.4%

Conclusion

The SPF results for Q2 2016 reflect a downward revision in inflation and real GDP growth expectations for 2016 and 2017, while longer-term expectations remain stable. The unemployment rate is expected to continue declining across all horizons. Key factors influencing these expectations include oil price movements, global demand, exchange rate fluctuations, and policy uncertainty. Forecasters also highlight the positive impact of monetary and fiscal policies on domestic demand and the potential benefits of structural reforms in reducing unemployment. Overall, the balance of risks remains downward for inflation and GDP growth, but upward for unemployment, indicating a cautious outlook for the euro area economy.