2025-05-22-Jefferies-DCC公共有限公司（DCC）_新披露揭开能源有机增长的神秘面纱_16页_628kb

DCC Plc Equity Research Summary

Rating: Buy
Price Target: 4,505p (+35% from current)

Analyst Views

• Ryan Flight: Believes structural EBITA per person (ppl) expansion is a key underappreciated driver of organic growth. Thinks the market will digest new disclosure on non-volume energy. Noted the stock is a "consensus Buy".
• Allen Wells: Aligns with the Buy rating.
• Simon Lechipre: Aligns rating and notes potential for earnings improvement through the year and outlook.

Valuation

• Current price (as of May 23): Below prior day's close.
• Current 2025E PE: ~9x (trading at bottom of 9-25x 10-year range).
• Price Target implies 12x PE.

Organic Growth Drivers (New Disclosure)

1. Energy Solutions: Products (68% of Energy EBITA): Driven by: (1) Structural margin expansion due to mix & scale (especially traditional fuels vs. higher-margin alternatives like HVO/renewable fuels). (2) Volume trends, although new disclosure shows structural improvements.

2. Energy Solutions: Services (9% of Energy EBITA): Primarily commercial Solar PV (and heat pumps). Achieves double-digit organic EBITA growth at a mid-teen margin, indicating high value-add. Expected to grow and potentially become a larger business piece via M&A.

3. Mobility: Signifies structural margin expansion (70% volume-driven fuel, 30% non-fuel). Mix shift towards higher-margin, lower-carbon fuels (HVO) outweighs minor volume declines. Non-fuel components (EV charging, fleet services, convenience stores) drive 5-10% organic EBITA growth.

Financial Outlook & EPS Accretion

• DCC repurchased ~14.5m shares (£700m) in Q1 (Part of £700-£750m plan).
• FY26e EBITA projected at £640m (Jefferies estimate £630m), equivalent to 491p/485p EPS.
• M&A spend of £300m-£500m in the next 12 months could yield 3-6% EPS accretion if bought at 9x EV/EBITDA.
• Analyst guidance mentions potential for positive EBITA growth drivers and Q&A regarding renewable energy options, Biofuel supply, and ESG integration.

Key Recommendations & Activities

• Share Buyback: £700m planned (previous £600m tender offer considered); execution likely in Q2+.
• Tech Sale: Expected c.£800m sale in CY26 (9x EV/EBITDA).

Risks & Considerations

• Health/Technology business (minor drag - sold/expected sale).
• M&A integration risks.
• Weather impact on energy sales/volumes.
• Commodity price volatility.
• Lingering market digestion of improved disclosures.
• ESG-related inquiries and challenges.

Investment Thesis Highlights

• Undervalued due to historical disclosure complexity.
• Improved disclosure highlights multiple organic growth drivers.
• Strong potential for earnings accretion via M&A.