2023-06-14-世界银行-乌干达贫困评估概述_加强复原力以加快乌干达的减贫（英）_48页_12mb

STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE TO ACCELERATE POVERTY REDUCTION IN UGANDA

Introduction
Uganda's poverty rate fluctuated between 2012/13 and 2019/20, significantly influenced by shocks. Poverty reduction was limited by inequality and insufficient structural change. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated poverty, reversing previous gains. The analysis reveals drivers of poverty and proposes policy actions.

Key Findings: Facts on Poverty

• Poverty rates remain high, especially in rural and Northern/Eastern regions (33.8% urban vs 19.8%).
• Agriculture dominates poverty, and education level strongly correlates with poverty rates.
• Rural areas (80% of poor) face higher vulnerability due to shocks, while urban inequality increased during COVID-19.

Vulnerability and Shocks

• Half the population is vulnerable to poverty (50%), driven by education, asset ownership, and employment status.
• Frequent climate shocks disproportionately affect the poor, limiting access to social safety nets.
• Social protection spending remains low, with programs like SCG and NUSAF widely used by the poor.

Drivers of Limited Progress

• Structural Change: Declining agricultural employment but slowed by COVID-19. Change favors wealthier, educated individuals.
• COVID-19 Impact: Pushed many into agriculture, reversed gains in structural change.
• Inequality in Opportunities: Unequal access to education, health, and infrastructure deepens poverty barriers.
• Telecommunications: Increased competition could reduce poverty (0.8 pp) but requires affordability improvements.

Policy Agenda

1. Raise Productivity and Income Opportunities

   • Invest in human capital (education access and quality) to reduce poverty.
   • Accelerate structural change by supporting labor reallocation from low-productivity sectors (e.g., subsistence agriculture).
   • Promote digital transformation and affordable ICT services to enhance economic growth.

2. Strengthen Household Resilience

   • Expand social protection programs to buffer against shocks, with a focus on the poor and refugees.
   • Improve agricultural resilience through better access to finance and insurance.
   • Diversify livelihoods and reduce dependency on vulnerable sectors.

Conclusion
Accelerating poverty reduction requires a two-pronged approach: boosting productivity and strengthening resilience. Addressing inequality and leveraging digital growth are critical for sustainable poverty reduction post-COVID-19.