欧洲物流行业展望-10页_703kb

European Logistics Outlook Summary

Key Economic and Inflation Context

Euro area inflation appears to have peaked due to falling energy prices, leading to a decline. Central banks are shifting to a more dovish tone, suggesting interest rates may stabilize. Despite this, economic headwinds include slowing consumer demand, rising costs, and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Logistics Sector Performance

• Annual take-up in 2022 reached 37.5 million sqm, still just 6% lower than 2021, and well above the five-year average (18% higher overall). Portugal, Romania, and Spain showed strong relative performance.
• Investment volumes dropped by 18% year-on-year to €54.5bn, with Q4 2022 seeing a sharp decline of 69% compared to Q4 2021. High yields (e.g., 4.69% average) reflect market uncertainty.

Occupancy and Vacancy Trends

Vacancy rates, though rising from recent lows, remain tight, supporting rental growth. For example, Euro average vacancy decreased to 3.1% in Q4 2022. Prime rents grew by 11% in 2022, driven by low vacancy and high demand.

Consumer and Economic Impact

Retail sales decreased in 2022 as consumers faced economic headwinds. Consumer sentiment held steady due to positive job market confidence, yet the pace of e-commerce declined somewhat after the pandemic boom.

Future Outlook Drivers

• E-commerce is expected to recover but grow slower; supply chain shifts, such as onshoring and near-shoring, will likely boost logistics demand for manufacturing and inventory needs.
• Global dry powder and increased allocation to real estate support potential investor activity, though market clarity remains limited.

Key Insights from Report

1. Economic performance has improved, outperforming forecasts despite inflation.
2. Annual comparisons of take-up and investment are misleading due to prior record highs, but volumes remain strong.
3. Yield gaps between buyers and sellers continue to hinder deal activity.
4. E-commerce growth is forecast to return in 2023, albeit cautiously.
5. Inventory accumulation and import rises may sustain occupier demand trends.