2025-06-10-花旗集团-卡姆登房地产信托（CPT）_卡姆登房地产信托（CPT.N）模型更新_11页_311kb

Camden Property Trust (CPT.N) is targeted with a "Buy" recommendation by Citigroup Research, based on updated model reflecting 1Q earnings and Nareit commentary. The key financial estimates are increased for 2025 core FFO per share to $6.81 and decreased for 2026 to $7.08. This adjustment reflects changes in operating, financing, and transaction assumptions.

Recommendation and Key Metrics:

• Target price: US$138, giving an expected 17.4% share price return and a total expected return of 20.9% (including 3.5% dividend yield).
• Valuation uses multiples including P/FFO (estimated at 17.3x for 2025, decreasing to 15.7x by 2027) and P/AFFO, with an implied 5.2% cap rate on forward NOI.

Financial Changes:

• Core FFO per share: Slight increase in 2025 from previous $6.78 to $6.81, and decrease in 2026 from $7.09 to $7.08.
• AFFO (Adjusted Funds from Operations) shows a decline in multiple years, accompanied by higher dividend payout ratios (up to 83.8% for AFFO by 2025).
• NOI grew by ~6.9% in 2023, steady in subsequent years, with strong same-store performance in 2024-2027.

Risks:

• Underperformance risks if private market cap rates expand or economic conditions deteriorate.
• Outperformance possible if cap rates compress or job growth improves economic outlook.

Additional Notes:

• Balance sheet shows growing real estate assets and liabilities, with improved fixed charge coverage (e.g., 4.4x by 2025).
• Long-term valuation assumptions highlight potential through multiple methods, including NAV and AFFO approaches.

This summary is based on Citigroup Research data, with key points derived from financial models, valuation metrics, and risk factors.