2025-06-10-花旗集团-奥钢联集团（VOES）_奥钢联集团（VOES.VI）模型更新_12页_616kb

Flash Analysis: Voestalpine AG Model Update

Citi Research issued a model update for voestalpine AG (VOES.VI) based on FY25 results, where Q4 performance exceeded expectations due to better EBITDA/t in the steel business. The stock is rated Neutral, with an unchanged investment outlook despite positives from high-tech heavy plate orders in energy and internal restructuring.

Key changes include a down 4% EBITDA estimate for FY26 (€1.4-1.55 billion guidance), offset by a 4% upgrade for FY28 EBITDA, driven by self-help measures in HPM and metal forming. The target price increased to €25 from €23, supported by DCF-based valuation and EV/EBITDA multiple, reflecting long-term normalized value and sector earnings perception.

Financial projections show sales slightly declining but stabilizing, with net income improving in FY26-E due to restructuring. Risks involve automotive sector dependency, EU protectionism, and the company's inland location increasing transportation costs, which offset partially by proximity to customers.

Overall, the Neutral rating reflects balanced view on potential upside from restructuring vs. sector vulnerabilities.