20261013-招银国际-Decent_export_growth_of_earth-moving_machinery_in_Sep_Domestic_excavator_sales_improved_5页_669kb

Summary of Capital Goods Sector Report (October 12, 2026)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the performance and outlook for the China capital goods sector, with a specific focus on earth-moving machinery sales in September 2026. It highlights the growth in both domestic and export sales, as well as the increasing adoption of electric models amid high oil prices. The report also includes stock recommendations and market outlooks for key players in the sector.

Key Performance Metrics

Earth-Moving Machinery Sales in September 2026

• Excavator sales grew by 7% YoY domestically, up from ~4% in July and August.
• Wheel loader sales increased by 14% YoY in September, with a similar growth rate as in August.
• Export growth for both excavators and wheel loaders was 21% YoY, indicating strong demand in international markets.

Electric Models

• The electric ratio of wheel loaders remained high at ~33%, with 33% of domestic sales and 10% of exports being electric.
• The electric ratio for excavators reached 1.2%, with 2.2% of domestic sales and 0.5% of exports being electric.
• The high oil price environment is creating favorable conditions for the export of electric models.

Main Viewpoints

1. Domestic Sales Improvement: The marginal increase in excavator sales growth in September signals a positive trend in domestic demand, which may help to improve market sentiment.
2. Export Growth Continues: The sustained export growth of both excavators and wheel loaders suggests that Chinese manufacturers are successfully penetrating emerging markets.
3. Electric Machinery Surge: With rising oil prices, there is a growing incentive for buyers to opt for electric models, which are more cost-effective in the long run.
4. Stock Recommendations: The report recommends the following stocks for potential investment:
   • SANY Heavy (6031 HK / 600031 CH) – BUY
   • Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH) – BUY
   • Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH) – BUY
   • SANY International (631 HK) – BUY, due to its overseas large mining trucks penetration.

Key Information

• The China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) released the sales data, which is a key source for industry insights.
• CMBIGM provides market analysis and investment recommendations, with the sector outlook currently set to OUTPERFORM.
• The downstream applications of construction machinery in China are outlined in a table, highlighting different usage areas:
  • Excavators are primarily used in infrastructure and have low usage in property and mining.
  • Wheel loaders are more used in mining and have medium usage in infrastructure.
  • Truck cranes are heavily used in infrastructure.
  • Forklifts are more relevant to manufacturing.
• The report includes 12 figures and tables, providing visual insights into sales trends, electric model adoption, and utilisation hours for Komatsu excavators in various regions.
• The CMBIGM ratings are defined as:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months.

Disclaimer

• The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
• Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
• The information in this report is based on publicly available data and may not be accurate or complete.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided.
• The report is intended for Hong Kong, UK, US, and Singapore recipients, with specific legal restrictions applying in each jurisdiction.

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal views.
• The analyst confirms that they did not trade in the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report's release.
• The analyst has no financial interests in the companies discussed.