20140415-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_418kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 15 Apr 2014

Core Content

This summary highlights the latest developments and market valuations in the regional oil and gas sector as of 15 April 2014, including news headlines, analyst ratings, and key price indexes. The information covers various countries in Asia, including China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, along with major global oil and gas companies.

Key News Headlines

Fuel Oil Imports in South China: Fuel oil imports are expected to grow in April to about 140kt, an increase of 130kt from March. This growth is attributed to the delayed cargo arrival from March to April. However, this amount is still 79kt less than the same period in the previous year.
South Korea's Bunker Fuel Premium: The 380 CST bunker fuel premium over MOPS has reached a 7-month low due to increased supply. Three of South Korea's four refiners are actively selling bunker fuel in the spot market, with SK Energy increasing high sulfur fuel oil output and reducing asphalt production as demand weakens.
Barakah Wins GOM Pipeline Contract: Barakah has secured a contract from GOM Resources Sdn Bhd to provide pre-commission services for a 28-inch, 282km pipeline from Kerteh, Terengganu, to the joint area of Malaysia and Thailand.
Tesla Motors and Sinopec Talks: Tesla Motors is in discussions with Sinopec to establish charging stations in China, with Sinopec reportedly building infrastructure in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei.
Dubai's Drydocks World Secures Jack-Up Rigs: Drydocks World has received an order for two jack-up rigs from Malta Oil & Gas, which can accommodate 150 people each and drill 450 feet underwater in HPHT conditions. This follows a USD730m order for a CJ80-design jack-up from Drill One Capital earlier this year.
Horizon Oil's Stanley Project Approved: Horizon Oil has received approval to proceed with its Stanley gas condensate project in Papua New Guinea, with Osaka Gas agreeing to pay USD204m for a 40% stake and an additional USD77m in adjustments.

Analyst Ratings and Target Prices

Company	KE Rating	Target Price	Notes
Dialog Group	Not Rated	-	In dispute with TLP, potential arbitration or court case
Keppel Corp	BUY	SGD12.48	Management agreement for Titan Quanzhou Shipyard
Ezion Holdings	BUY	SGD2.90	Equity entry into AusGroup, collaboration in Australia
Petronas Gas	HOLD	MYR23.50	More stable revenue profile, not as accretive as expected

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (14 Apr 2014)

Commodity	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Absolute Change	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	103.48	2.34	2.3%	1.9%	1.5%
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	109.07	2.35	2.2%	1.2%	0.6%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/bbl.	104.50	1.18	1.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/bbl.	110.05	5.21	5.0%	3.7%	3.3%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	4.57	0.00	2.9%	4.5%	0.0%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/bbl.	117.95	2.11	1.8%	1.1%	0.7%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/bbl.	122.23	0.45	0.4%	-0.3%	0.2%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	603.24	2.32	0.4%	-0.8%	-0.6%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,326.58	23.08	1.8%	3.3%	-1.0%
USD-JPY	USDJPY CURNCY	Fx rate	101.92	-1.37	-1.3%	-1.3%	-1.3%
USD-EUR	USDEUR CURNCY	Fx rate	0.72	-0.01	-0.8%	-0.4%	0.4%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.22	0.01	0.1%	0.0%	1.5%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	16,173.24	-239.47	-1.5%	-1.7%	-1.7%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	1,830.61	-34.48	-1.8%	-2.2%	-2.5%
30Y T-Bill	USGG30YR INDEX	Yield	3.49	-0.10	-2.7%	-2.0%	-6.3%

Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (14-Apr)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	8.85	NR	224.3	98.1	9.9	9.8	5.5	5.1	11.8	1.1	4.5
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.17	NR	103.4	117.2	10.0	8.9	5.5	4.8	12.2	1.1	4.2
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	12.96	NR	74.6	122.6	8.2	8.1	3.8	3.6	17.3	1.3	4.4
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	320.00	NR	45.3	20.5	11.3	10.3	6.2	4.7	16.8	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	953.75	NR	51.1	53.3	13.5	13.3	10.5	9.9	11.9	1.5	0.9
Cairn India	CAIR IN	BUY	358.40	443.00	11.3	13.6	5.7	5.0	3.8	3.3	25.1	1.4	3.2
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	444.35	NR	5.3	10.0	17.1	15.3	7.3	8.5	11.5	1.9	2.5
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	310.80	NR	1.7	6.5	21.0	11.4	12.6	10.5	3.7	0.8	2.7
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	HOLD	24.00	23.50	14.6	4.7	22.8	28.6	17.9	15.6	21.4	4.6	2.3
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	BUY	70.00	87.00	9.8	60.3	11.0	12.3	2.6	2.4	7.9	0.8	1.3
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	SELL	52.50	65.00	3.3	1.1	10.3	9.2	1.3	1.2	11.7	1.2	5.9

Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price (14-Apr)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	P/E (2013)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	5.04	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Summary of Key Information

Fuel Oil Imports: South China's fuel oil imports are expected to increase in April due to delayed cargo from March, though still below the previous year's levels.
Bunker Fuel Market: South Korea's bunker fuel premium has dropped to a 7-month low due to increased supply, with SK Energy shifting production focus.
Pipeline Contracts: Barakah has won a GOM pipeline contract, and Drydocks World has secured new jack-up rigs.
Tesla and Sinopec: Discussions are ongoing between Tesla and Sinopec for setting up charging stations in China.
Horizon Oil: The Stanley gas condensate project in Papua New Guinea has received approval, with Osaka Gas set to pay additional USD77m.
Analyst Ratings: Keppel Corp, Ezion Holdings, and Cairn India are rated BUY, while Petronas Gas is HOLD.
Valuation Metrics: The table includes key financial metrics for Asian oil and gas companies, such as P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and Yield, with the majority showing positive trends.