20140724-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_Grease_Spot_11页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 24 July 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides a snapshot of the regional oil and gas market, including price movements, key news headlines, and analyst reports from Maybank Kim Eng and Bloomberg, as of 23 July 2014. It highlights both the performance of major commodities and the outlook for specific companies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (Closing as of 23 July 2014)
| Commodity/Instrument | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Chg. 1D | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 108.03 | 0.70 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -5.0% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 103.12 | 0.73 | 0.7% | 2.5% | -2.2% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 104.72 | -0.31 | -0.3% | 0.2% | -5.9% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 105.71 | -0.55 | -0.5% | 1.5% | -6.7% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 3.76 | -0.01 | -0.3% | -8.7% | -15.8% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKMSGM1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 11.20 | -0.15 | -1.3% | -6.3% | -14.2% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 120.61 | -0.15 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 118.95 | -0.67 | -0.6% | 0.0% | -5.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 603.75 | -2.58 | -0.4% | 0.1% | -4.8% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,304.59 | -1.83 | -0.1% | 0.4% | -1.0% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.20 | -0.01 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 17,086.63 | -26.91 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0.9% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,987.01 | 3.48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
Key News Headlines
- China's Gasoline Exports Declined by 10% YoY: 1H14 gasoline exports in China dropped due to increased domestic demand.
- Shandong Crude Stock Down 21.4%: Commercial crude stock in Shandong fell to 600k-610k tonnes.
- US Oil Producers Ordered to Renew Railcars: Following rail incidents, the US government proposed upgrades for railcars used in petroleum product transport.
- EU Energy Plan Aims for 30% Reduction in Energy Intensity by 2030: The EU's energy plan targets a 30% reduction in energy intensity from 2007 levels, though mandatory aspects remain unclear.
- Syria's Oil Sector Lost USD23.5b: Damage to pipelines, facilities, and production delays have significantly impacted the oil sector.
- US Imported One LNG Cargo in May: Despite increased gas production, the US imported 2.8Bcf of LNG via the Everett terminal.
- Taiwan's FPCC Tenders for LPG: Formosa Petrochemical Corp is seeking to purchase up to 22k tonnes of propane and butane for delivery in late August to early September.
Our Latest Reports
Vard Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD1.25
- Key Points: 2Q14 results were disappointing due to lower EBITDA margins, but there are positive signs of turnaround at Promar yard and reduced risk at Niteroi yard. Target price was adjusted due to lower margins.
China Oil & Gas
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Key Points: Sinopec is the core holding among Asia-focused investors, but there's a question about the reform trade. The report suggests switching from Sinopec to PetroChina due to high ownership and valuations.
Cairn India
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: INR400
- Key Points: Maintains BUY with a DCF-based target price. EPS is expected to decline in 1QFY15 due to higher costs. The stock trades at a low PER and P/B, with a 4% dividend yield. Proven reserves and exploration potential are key catalysts.
Ezion Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD2.70
- Key Points: Secured two new contracts totaling USD269m. Maintains BUY rating with unchanged target price.
Valuation Comparison: Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 23-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E (X) 2014E | P/E (X) 2015E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.80 | 11.50 | 226.6 | 85.4 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.63 | 6.85 | 99.0 | 73.0 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.88 | 14.34 | 80.0 | 83.4 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 405.30 | NR | 57.8 | 51.6 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,033.25 | NR | 55.7 | 73.0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 345.55 | 443.00 | 11.0 | 16.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 600.25 | NR | 7.2 | 18.7 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 14.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 395.15 | NR | 2.2 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.50 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 6.01 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 66.50 | 87.00 | 9.4 | 25.4 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 13.6 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 333.00 | 395.00 | 29.9 | 36.3 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 14.0 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 113,000 | 103,000 | 10.1 | 1.8 | 16.9 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 34.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.0 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| Asian E&P average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.8 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
Summary
The oil and gas market in the region experienced mixed movements, with crude oil prices up slightly while LNG prices in Northeast Asia fell. Key developments included reduced gasoline exports in China, lower crude stock in Shandong, and proposed railcar upgrades in the US. The EU's energy plan called for a 30% reduction in energy intensity by 2030, while the crisis in Syria led to significant losses in the oil sector.
In terms of company performance and valuation, Vard Holdings and Ezion Holdings were rated as BUY, with positive outlooks on their operations and contract wins. Cairn India was also rated as BUY due to its exploration upside and undervaluation. The report highlighted that while Sinopec is a core holding, investors may be advised to shift to PetroChina due to its more attractive valuation.
The valuation comparison table shows the current and projected financial metrics for various Asian oil and gas companies, including price-to-earnings, enterprise value-to-EBITDA, return on equity, and price-to-book ratios, indicating a range of market sentiments and investment opportunities.
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