20240304-光大期货-铝策略月报_27页_2mb

报告摘要

Oxide aluminum: February production reached 616,000 tons, with capacity utilization partially restored to 7,934,000 tons, showing a 0.7% year-on-year increase due to regional variations and supply chain issues.
Electrolyte aluminum: Production stabilized at 333,000 tons in February, up 7.7% year-on-year from stable capacity at 4,200,000 tons, supported by improved power supplies in Yunnan.

Overall demand weakened due to post-Chinese New Year holiday effects, with domestic downstream processing enterprises' average operating rates declining 3.9 percentage points to 56.8%.
Sub-sectors: Alum-board opening rates rose modestly; alum foil and extruded profiles saw declines, reflecting slow order recovery in build sector.
Processing fees: Alum Rod and alum bar fees generally increased in line with margin pressures; alloy prices were cut by 100-150 yuan/ton due to reduced demand.

Exchange inventories: LME increased by 54,000 tons, SHFE Al by 768,000 tons in February, indicating sustained accumulation.
Social inventories: Al锭 stockpiled to 789,000 tons, alum rod reached high levels at 2,705,000 tons, suggesting tight supply-demand dynamics.

February saw alum oxide futures rally +8%, while SHFE Al dipped -4%, influenced by seasonal trends and inventories.
Spread changes: Market shifted to slight backwardation from contango, supporting prices amid optimism for demand revival.

Key drivers: Festival holiday weighed on March 2024 performance, but anticipated recovery from low inventory and high alum water support could lift price volatility.
Supply-demand balance: Expected improvements in February-March transition, with oxide surplus easing and electrolyte aluminum returning to balanced conditions.

Monitor import-export dynamics, including alum rod prices and alum water ratios.
Potential market volatility driven by event risks and inventory cycles.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on the report's data and analysis but does not constitute investment advice.

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