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Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030: Demographic Dynamics Summary

Core Content

The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030 outlines seven major megatrends that will shape the future of the global economy, society, and environment. This summary focuses on the megatrend of Demographic Dynamics, which is expected to have a profound impact on various aspects of life and business.

Main Trends and Key Points

Global Population Growth

• World Population: Expected to grow to 8.5 billion by 2030, up from 7.3 billion today, representing a 16% increase.
• Annual Growth Rate: Slowing down from 1.2% (2000-2015) to 0.97% (2015-2030).
• Population Growth Distribution:
  • Developed Countries: Projected to grow by 33 million (2.6% increase).
  • Developing Countries: Expected to grow by 1.1 billion (16.9% increase).
  • 97% of Growth: Will occur in developing countries.
• Top 3 Countries for Population Growth: India, Nigeria, and Pakistan will account for over 30% of the global population increase.
• Top 10 Countries for Population Growth: Account for 54% of the global population increase, with Nigeria expected to grow by 44% (80.4 million people).

Age Structure Changes

• Global Median Age: Will increase by 3.5 years, reaching 33.1 years in 2030.
• Young vs. Old Populations:
  • Young Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa, where nearly half of Niger's population will be under 15.
  • Old Countries: Europe, with Japan's median age reaching 51.5 years by 2030.
• Age Group Proportions:
  • 0-14 Years: Will decrease from 26% to 24%.
  • 65+ Years: Will increase from 8% to 12%.
  • Working Age (15-64 Years): Will remain stable at around 66% globally.

Urbanization

• Urban Population Growth:
  • Worldwide: 60% of the population will live in urban areas by 2030, up from 54% today.
  • Developed Countries: Urban population will increase by 67 million.
  • Developing Countries: Urban population will increase by over 1 billion.
• Urbanization Challenges:
  • Infrastructure Needs: Growing cities in developing countries require basic and middle-class infrastructure.
  • Megacities: Will dominate urban growth, with Tokyo, Delhi, and Shanghai among the largest.
  • Urban Challenges: Include water and energy supply, security, traffic, and waste management.

International Migration

• Migration Trends:
  • Global Migrants: 244 million people (3.3% of world population) live as migrants in 2015.
  • Refugees: Only 10% of migrants are refugees, with most coming from Syria, Afghanistan, and Somalia.
  • Internal Displacement: 40.8 million IDPs in 2015, twice the number of refugees.
• Migration Flow:
  • Net Migration: 34 million people will move from developing to developed regions.
  • Main Destinations: North America (+18 million), Europe (+13 million), and Oceania (+2 million).
  • Challenges: Safe migration, human rights protection, and economic integration of migrants.

Business Implications

• Focus on Growth Regions: Companies should target growing regions where population and GDP are rising.
• Adapting to Aging Populations: Developed countries need to prepare for an increasing old-age dependency ratio and adapt to the needs of the 60+ generation.
• Education and Employment: Least developed countries need to invest in education and job opportunities for their young populations.
• Immigration as a Talent Source: Companies in shrinking populations should benefit from immigration by hiring skilled workers and leveraging their global experience.
• Urban Infrastructure: Opportunities exist in building and operating urban infrastructure, especially in developing countries.

Key Information

• Demographic Dynamics is a major global megatrend that will influence economic and social structures.
• Migration is driven by economic, demographic, political, and environmental factors.
• Urbanization is expected to continue, with significant growth in developing countries.
• Aging Populations in developed countries will create challenges in social security and pension systems.
• Youthful Populations in developing countries require investment in education and employment.
• Global Infrastructure Demand will be highest in growing cities, especially in developing countries.

Conclusion

The demographic dynamics of the next 15 years will be characterized by a significant global population increase, an aging population in developed countries, and rapid urbanization in developing regions. These changes will bring both challenges and opportunities for businesses and governments. Strategic planning must consider these trends and integrate them with scenario planning to navigate the VUCA environment effectively.