三星-韩国-投资策略-投资者会议要点：大多数国内投资者过于谨慎-20171219-15页_1mb

Samsung Market Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the market strategy and investment outlook for 2018 by Samsung Securities, based on insights from meetings with institutional investors. It highlights the firm's bullish stance on the market despite the cautious approach of many domestic investors.

Main Points

Market Outlook

• Kospi Performance: The Kospi had a positive performance in 2017 with a 22.5% YTD gain, while the Kosdaq showed similar growth.
• Market Valuation: The Kospi's 12-month forward P/E is 9.0, P/B is 1.0, and ROE is 11.2, indicating it is still relatively undervalued compared to historical data.
• EPS Forecast: The Kospi's EPS forecast is expected to grow by 13.5% over the next six months, showing continued earnings momentum.
• Investor Sentiment: Most domestic institutional investors are overly cautious, driven by a fear of market bubbles and the trauma of past crashes. This is seen as a misalignment with the actual market conditions.

Market and Sector Views

• Kospi Thermometer: The fundamental and technical scores show divergent signals, with fundamentals still indicating a bullish outlook and technical indicators at neutral due to recent pullbacks.
• Sector VEM Model: The model evaluates sectors based on valuation, earnings, and momentum. The steel and construction sectors have moved from value trap to overweight, signaling broader market participation.
• IT Hardware and Semiconductors: These sectors remain underweight, but they are still experiencing earnings growth and are expected to move to other segments as the Kospi rebounds.

Key Information

Market Conditions

• The market is expected to experience irrational exuberance in 2018 due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and monetary easing.
• The document suggests that the current rally is rational, driven by fundamental growth rather than speculative bubbles.

Institutional Investor Takeaways

• Many investors are overly conservative due to past experiences with financial crises and the perception that market crashes follow booms.
• The firm believes that such conservative views may lead to missed opportunities in 2018, as the market is likely to continue its upward trend.

Sector Analysis

Energy

• SK Innovation is highlighted with a target price of KRW260,000, expected to benefit from the global macro environment and tax cuts.

Materials

• Lotte Chemical, LG Chem, Posco, and Korea Zinc are included in the portfolio, with positive valuations and earnings growth expected.

Industrials

• Hyundai E&C, LS Industrial Systems, SK, Samsung Heavy Industries, and Jeju Air are part of the portfolio. While Samsung Heavy Industries has continued losses, others show potential for growth.

Consumer Discretionary

• Hyundai Motor, Mando, Hyundai Mobis, Loen Entertainment, and Shinsegae are included, with varying levels of expected performance.

Consumer Staples

• KT&G and Cosmax are highlighted, showing positive valuations and potential for growth.

Healthcare

• Hanmi Pharmaceutical and Samjin Pharmaceutical are included, with positive earnings and momentum.

Financials

• KB Financial Group, Hana Financial Group, Meritz Fire & Marine, and Korea Investment Holdings are part of the portfolio, with mixed performance and valuations.

IT

• SK Materials, Posco Chemtech, Samsung Electronics, TES, and Pearl Abyss are included, with varying levels of expected performance.

Telecom

• LG Uplus is highlighted with a target price of KRW18,000, indicating positive outlook due to regulatory changes and market dynamics.

Utilities

• Kogas is noted as a potential beneficiary of the updated National Electricity Plan, with positive momentum and valuation.

Conclusion

Samsung Securities remains bullish on the market for 2018, anticipating irrational exuberance driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and monetary easing. The firm warns that overly conservative institutional investors may miss out on opportunities. The sector VEM model and Kospi Thermometer are used to evaluate market conditions and sector attractiveness, with the steel and construction sectors showing significant potential. The December Samsung Model Portfolio includes a range of stocks across various sectors, reflecting the firm's strategic outlook and investment recommendations.