全球_区域与国家趋势_1961–2025年气温变化统计_11页_968kb

报告摘要

FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 122: Temperature Change Statistics (1961–2025)

Core Content

This analytical brief provides a comprehensive overview of global, regional, and country-level temperature change trends from 1961 to 2025, based on data from the FAOSTAT Temperature change on land dataset. The data are produced in collaboration with NASA–GISS and use the 1951–1980 period as a reference climatology.

Main Highlights

Global Warming:
- 2025 was the second warmest year on record with a global mean annual temperature anomaly of 1.9 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline.
- 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three warmest consecutive years ever recorded.
- January 2025 was the warmest month on record, with all months in 2025 exceeding 1.3 °C above the baseline.
Regional Trends:
- Europe had the highest warming (2.7 °C), followed by the Americas (1.9 °C) and Asia (1.8 °C).
- Oceania (1.4 °C) and Africa (1.3 °C) remained below the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold.
- Subregions with the strongest warming include Central Asia (3.1 °C), Eastern Europe (2.8 °C), and Northern America and Northern Europe (both 2.5 °C).
- The lowest warming was observed in Melanesia, Polynesia, and Southern Africa (0.9 °C), followed by Middle Africa (1.1 °C).
Country-Level Analysis:
- 109 out of 223 countries and territories experienced warming above 1.5 °C in 2025, representing nearly half the world population (4.1 billion people) and half the agricultural land area (2.6 billion hectares).
- The Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands (Norway) recorded the highest warming anomaly for the fifth consecutive year, at 3.9 °C.
- Countries with the strongest warming in 2025 include Kazakhstan (3.3 °C), Kyrgyzstan, Canada, Finland, Russia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, Sweden, Andorra, and Belarus.
- The least affected countries were mainly tropical islands, oceanic territories, and southern hemisphere regions, where marine influences moderate temperature changes. Examples include the Solomon Islands (0.3 °C), South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands (0.4 °C), Botswana (0.4 °C), and the Marshall Islands (0.5 °C).

Key Information

Temperature Anomalies:
- Temperature changes are measured as deviations from the 1951–1980 baseline.
- Normal anomalies are defined as within ±2σ (95% confidence interval), while much warmer anomalies are those exceeding ±3σ (99.7% confidence interval).
- The global warming trend has been nearly linear since the mid-1980s, with the last decade averaging around +1.5 °C, matching the Paris Agreement threshold.
Population and Agricultural Exposure:
- Asia had the largest population (2.5 billion) and agricultural land area (1.3 billion hectares) affected by warming above 1.5 °C.
- Europe was the most exposed region, with nearly 100% of its population and agricultural land in countries with warming above 1.5 °C.
- The share of population and agricultural land in countries with warming above 1.5 °C has doubled every decade in most regions.
Methodology:
- Temperature data are based on the NASA–GISS GISTEMP dataset, with a resolution of 500 km for gridded values.
- A finer 250 km resolution was used for the FAOSTAT dataset, excluding ocean data.
- Country-level data are area-weighted using the FAOSTAT Land Use dataset.
- The dataset accounts for administrative changes since 1961, such as the split of the Soviet Union and the separation of Sudan.
- The uncertainty in temperature data varies by region:
  - Global and regional aggregates have 5–10% uncertainty (typically 0.1–0.2 °C).
  - Country-level data may have higher uncertainty, depending on the density of meteorological stations.

Conclusion

The data highlight a significant acceleration in global warming, with 2025 being a pivotal year in the context of the Paris Agreement. The consecutive record-breaking years of 2023–2025 underscore the increasing frequency of extreme warming events. The impact is uneven, with high-latitude and continental regions experiencing the strongest warming, while tropical islands and oceanic territories remain relatively cool due to marine influences. The FAOSTAT dataset offers a crucial tool for monitoring and assessing climate risks to food and agriculture at various levels.

References

FAO. 2026. FAOSTAT: Temperature change on land. [Accessed March 2026].
GISTEMP Team. 2026. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4.
IPCC. 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report.
Lenssen et al.. 2019. Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model.
Menne et al.. 2018. The global historical climatology network monthly temperature dataset, version 4.