IMF国际货币组织全球-Argentina_Fourth-Review-under-the-Stand_88页_1mb

Argentina IMF Country Report No. 19/232 Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Argentina, which was approved on June 20, 2018. The review was completed on July 12, 2019, allowing the disbursement of SDR 3.9 billion (approximately US$5.4 billion), bringing total disbursements since the program's inception to SDR 31.91371 (about US$44.1 billion).

The report highlights economic developments, program implementation, fiscal and monetary policies, debt management, and structural reforms. It also includes key risks and market developments.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Market Stability and Inflation

• Financial markets stabilized in May and June 2019 after a sharp sell-off in April due to political uncertainty and inflation expectations.
• The peso appreciated by 8% against the U.S. dollar since the peak of the sell-off in April.
• Inflation fell in May to 3.1% m/m, but remains high, with cumulative annual inflation at 57.3% y/y in May.
• Inflation expectations for the end of 2019 rose to 40.3%, indicating continued pressure on prices.

2. Economic Recovery

• The recession is likely to have ended by the end of 2019, with positive sequential growth expected in the second quarter.
• Economic activity weakened further in Q1 2019, but the contraction in services was partly offset by growth in agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.

3. Fiscal Performance

• The primary federal fiscal balance remained in surplus up to May 2019, reaching 0.2% of GDP.
• The government met its fiscal targets for March and is on track to meet those for June, despite requesting waivers of applicability due to data unavailability.
• Social assistance programs were expanded to cover adults without children and low-income working mothers, improving gender equity and social safety nets.

4. Monetary Policy

• The BCRA has been prudent in managing monetary policy, supporting exchange rate stability and disinflation.
• The monetary stance has been tight, with interest rates maintained at a high level to reduce inflation.
• The BCRA introduced a 62.5% floor on LELIQ rates in April, which was maintained in May and June.

5. Debt Management

• Rollover rates for public debt have improved, but average debt maturities have shortened, increasing gross financing needs.
• The BCRA has adjusted its FX intervention strategy, including a floor on LELIQ rates and sterilized FX sales to manage the exchange rate.
• The BCRA reduced unremunerated reserve requirements (URR) on time deposits by 3% in July to address seasonal currency demand, and base money targets will be adjusted in the following months to unwind this effect.

6. Structural Reforms

• The IMF encourages continued structural reforms to improve growth potential, create jobs, and reduce poverty.
• Key areas for reform include tax system redesign, increasing competition in domestic markets, and strengthening governance and combating corruption.
• The recent MERCOSUR-EU trade agreement is a positive step, particularly benefiting the agricultural sector.

7. Challenges and Risks

• Election-related uncertainties pose a risk to market confidence and program stability.
• High sovereign spreads and increased financing needs could lead to higher debt costs and exchange rate pressures.
• The shortening of debt maturities and potential shifts in investor preferences may exacerbate financing risks in the lead-up to the October 2019 elections.

Program Implementation

1. Fiscal Discipline

• The government has maintained fiscal discipline, exceeding targets in March and June.
• Spending has been cautious, with revenue collection efforts intensified.

2. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The BCRA has recalibrated its monetary program to accommodate seasonal demand while maintaining interest rates to lower inflation.
• FX interventions have been unsterilized to reduce the monetary base and tighten monetary conditions.

3. Debt Management Strategy

• The debt management strategy has been revamped to increase rollover rates and extend average maturity.
• The BCRA has introduced new FX-linked bonds and rolled over short-term debt to manage liquidity and reduce financing needs.

4. Social Programs

• Social spending has been expanded to include adults without children and low-income working mothers.
• Discounts and subsidized loans have been introduced for pensioners, social transfer beneficiaries, and households.

Conclusion

The IMF remains supportive of Argentina's economic program, which has shown progress in stabilizing financial markets, improving fiscal and external positions, and beginning a recovery from the previous year's recession. However, continued commitment to the program and clear communication are essential to maintain market confidence and ensure long-term stability. The IMF emphasizes the importance of structural reforms to boost growth, reduce poverty, and improve the standard of living for Argentinians.