2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Angola_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Stand_63页_993kb

Summary of Angola: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Angola, which was approved in November 2009 with a total of SDR 858.9 million (300% of quota). The review includes requests for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria, waivers of applicability of performance criteria, and modifications to performance criteria. The discussions were conducted in Luanda from November 1–10, 2010, and followed by videoconference sessions.

The program is generally on track, but some performance criteria were missed due to the large arrears clearance operation and technical issues. The staff report recommends the completion of the fourth review and supports the requested waivers.

Main Economic Indicators (2008–2011)

Main Points

Context

• The Angolan economy was severely affected by the sharp drop in global oil prices in late-2008.
• Oil contributes 75% of government revenues and 96% of merchandise exports.
• The budget moved into deficit, interest rates rose, and the exchange rate faced pressure.
• The government defaulted on domestic supplier payments, harming local firms.
• A comprehensive adjustment program was initiated in late-2009 with support from the IMF.

Recent Developments and Outlook

• Macroeconomic performance in 2010 was mixed, with a 2.3% GDP growth expected.
• Inflation rose slightly, but the fiscal position improved, leading to a $7.5% GDP surplus.
• Domestic payments arrears were significantly reduced, with $3.6 billion cleared by the end of 2010.
• Foreign reserves are being rebuilt, with a $1.7 billion reserve accumulation expected in 2011.
• Oil prices are expected to rise, supporting the external environment for Angola in 2011.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget is designed on conservative oil price assumptions.
• Public investment is to be increased, but gradually to avoid import pressures.
• Fuel subsidies are to be further reduced to improve fiscal sustainability, despite public resistance.
• A fiscal rule is being considered to smooth expenditure over the oil price cycle, though the authorities prefer growth-oriented investment.

B. Domestic Payments Arrears

• The arrears clearance program is well underway, with $6.8 billion of verified arrears.
• $2.7 billion was cleared in the third quarter, and $0.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
• The quantitative performance criterion on arrears accumulation was not met, but the authorities are taking corrective actions.
• The definition of arrears is being modified to include accounts payable with a ceiling on the scale of payables.

C. Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies

• The growth of broad money is below program expectations, but sterilization operations have helped contain inflation.
• The exchange rate has been broadly stable in 2010, fluctuating between Kz 90 and 93.5 per USD.
• The BNA has improved the foreign exchange auction system and is monitoring liquidity.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) have risen from 2.6% to 7.1% due to liquidity issues.
• The planned FSAP in March 2011 will assess the financial system comprehensively.

D. Administrative and Policy Reform Agenda

• Public financial management is being strengthened with a debt management unit and project appraisal capacity.
• A framework for public-private partnerships is in the legislative pipeline.
• A new oversight framework for public enterprises is being developed.
• Tax reform is in progress, with a modernized legal framework and an international consultancy assisting in reform design.
• Transparency is being improved with quarterly budget reports and external audits of public enterprises.
• Safeguards measures at the BNA are being implemented, including the reconstitution of the Audit Board.

Key Performance Criteria Missed

1. Domestic arrears accumulation: The zero accumulation target was missed, but the authorities are clearing arrears and the definition is being modified.
2. Ceiling on banking system credit to government: Kz 70 billion was exceeded due to the large arrears clearance.
3. Ceiling on BNA net domestic credit (NDC): Kz 160 billion exceeded the target, but sterilization kept liquidity under control.

Staff Recommendations

• The staff supports the completion of the fourth review.
• It also supports the requested waivers for nonobservance of performance criteria.
• A waiver for the end-December targets is recommended, as the authorities are taking corrective actions.
• The program may need to be adjusted if oil prices rise significantly.

Conclusion

The Angolan authorities have made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, clearing domestic arrears, and rebuilding foreign reserves. However, challenges remain, including raising public investment, controlling inflation, and improving the business environment. The IMF staff endorses the program and the requested waivers, acknowledging the technical and operational difficulties faced by the government. The reform agenda is ongoing, with key initiatives in public financial management, tax reform, and transparency.