20160331-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_21页_2mb

Summary of Research Highlights

Core Content Overview

This document provides equity research highlights for several Hong Kong-listed companies, including their FY15 and FY16E financial performance, valuation analysis, and outlook for future earnings. Each company's performance is evaluated against the analyst's expectations and market consensus, with ratings and target prices (TP) adjusted accordingly.

Key Companies and Analysis

Greentown China (3900 HK)

• Rating: NEUTRAL
• Target Price (TP): HK$6.7
• Core Profit: FY15 core profit declined by 30% YoY, missing expectations by 45%
• GPM: 20.8% (vs estimated 23.3%)
• Effective Tax Rate: 132% (vs estimated 58%)
• Net Gearing: 88% (vs FY14: 93%)
• Dividend: No dividend proposed for FY15, same as FY14
• Outlook: Earnings recovery is expected to be slower than anticipated; TP reduced to 60% discount to 1-year forward NAV

Shimao Property (813 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): Under review
• Core Profit: FY15 core profit declined by 21%, 19% below estimate
• GPM: 28.5% (vs estimated 30.8%)
• Net Gearing: 58.1% (vs FY14: 58.6%)
• Dividend: DPS HK$0.7, down 22% YoY
• Outlook: Positive catalysts include a sustainable bull market for A-shares, early Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect, and increased turnover

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): HK$17.09
• FY15 NPAT: Grew 105% YoY, beating consensus by 10%
• Payout Ratio: Stood at 30.2%
• Valuation: Trading at 1.20x FY16E P/B and 12.77x FY16E P/E
• Outlook: Attractive valuation; potential for further fiscal and monetary policy support

China Construction Bank (939 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): HK$5.88
• FY15 NPAT: Grew 0.5% YoY, in line with expectations
• NIM: Flattish in 4Q15, more resilient than expected
• Capital Base: Strengthened with core CAR up to 15.22%
• Outlook: Maintained BUY due to attractive valuation and potential for improved asset quality

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): HK$5.88
• FY15 NPAT: Grew 0.5% YoY, in line with expectations
• NIM: Flattish in 4Q15
• Asset Quality: Deteriorated slightly with NPL ratio at 1.50%
• Outlook: Attractive valuation; potential for improved fiscal and monetary policies

Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): HK$2.6
• FY15 Core Profit: Grew by 42%, beating estimate by 11%
• GPM: 35.7% (vs FY14: 36.3%)
• Dividend: Final DPS of HK$0.18, up 12.5% YoY
• Outlook: Expect sales and profit growth of 15% and 18% in FY16E; TP revised up based on 60% discount to higher NAV

Brilliance China (1114 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price (TP): HK$8.20
• FY15 Net Profit: RMB3.49bn, slightly below consensus
• Brilliance BMW: Expected to rebound in 2H16 and 2017 with new product launches
• Outlook: Maintain BUY; TP based on 9.3x FY16E P/E

Datang Renewable (1798 HK)

• Rating: NEUTRAL
• Target Price (TP): HK$0.87
• Wind Utilization: Expected to decline to 1,698 hours in FY16E
• Wind Capacity: Increased to 1.3GW annually during the 13th Five-Year-Plan
• Outlook: Limited earnings visibility due to high financial leverage; TP revised up based on 2-stage DCF model

TCL Comm (2618 HK)

• Rating: NEUTRAL
• Target Price (TP): HK$4.96
• 4Q15 Revenue: Fell 19% below expectations due to weak shipment and ASP pressure
• GPM: Improved to 23.4% (highest since 2010)
• Outlook: Cautious on 1H16E results; TP based on 6.4x FY16E P/E

Market and Economic Outlook

• Stock Market Indices:

  • Hang Seng Index: +2.15%
  • Hang Seng Finance Index: +2.47%
  • Hang Seng Property Index: +2.55%
  • Shanghai Composite Index: +2.77%
  • TWSE: -0.84%

• Global Market Data:

  • Brent Oil: -2.31%
  • COMEX Gold: +1.84%
  • COMEX Copper: -1.51%
  • LME Aluminum: +1.19%
  • LME Copper: -0.57%
  • BDI: +0.74%

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD/RMB: 6.51 (+0.05%)
  • USD/HKD: 7.76 (-0.02%)
  • EUR/USD: 1.13 (+0.91%)
  • 1Y RMB NDF: 6.64 (-0.38%)
  • 3M Libor: 0.63 (-0.24%)
  • 3M Shibor: 2.81 (+0.4%)

• Economic Data to Watch:

  • China: NBS Non-Mfg PMI (April 1, 2016)
  • US: Non-Farm Payrolls, Private Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing PMI, etc.

Summary of Key Events

• Company Events (March 31, 2016):
  • Multiple companies released financial results and dividends, including Burwill Holdings, Sunway International, and others.
  • The event list highlights the importance of financial reporting and dividend announcements in the market.

Conclusion

The research document offers a comprehensive analysis of key Hong Kong-listed companies, including their recent performance, financial metrics, and future outlook. Analysts have adjusted ratings and target prices based on current performance against expectations and market consensus. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic for some companies, while others are viewed as neutral due to limited upside potential and high financial leverage.