国际清算银行-2025年度经济报告（英）-2025.6_126页_11mb

Summary of BIS Annual Economic Report 2025

Key Takeaways:

1. Global Economic Outlook: Trade tensions, especially broad-based tariffs, have increased policy uncertainty and derailed the anticipated soft landing. Global growth weakened, with forecasts revised downward, and inflation displays divergence across economies. Public debt remains elevated, posing vulnerabilities to financial stability.

2. Real and Macroeconomic Challenges: Supply-side rigidities, productivity growth declines, and trade fragmentation are major concerns. Fiscal sustainability is threatened by high public debt, while private credit intermediation introduces new systemic risks, especially with the rise of Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs).

3. Financial System Shifts: Financial intermediation has moved from traditional banks to NBFIs, amplified by FX swaps facilitating cross-border flows. Greater international financial market interconnectedness means shocks can transmit rapidly, increasing risks across jurisdictions. Central banks retain substantial influence but face tighter constraints.

4. Next-Generation Monetary System: Tokenisation offers a path to modernize money and finance, anchored by tokenised central bank reserves, deposits, and government bonds within a unified ledger. This could unlock efficiency gains and new use cases. However, stablecoins fail the three main tests (singleness, elasticity, integrity) and cannot serve as the monetary system’s mainstay, though they might have niche, regulated roles.

Recommendations and Policy Priorities:

• Structural Reforms: Address productivity stagnation, enhance flexibility in labour and product markets, and improve global supply chains.
• Monetary and Financial Stability: Tackle fiscal vulnerabilities while ensuring prudential supervision for NBFIs. Central banks must preserve price stability and navigate cross-border transmission of financial conditions.
• Tokenisation and Innovation: Advance experiments and regulatory frameworks for tokenised systems—ensuring central bank support to foster trust and resilience while building interoperability and meeting integrity standards.

Overall, the report underscores that maintaining stable monetary systems amid technological disruption and fragmentation requires central bank leadership, regulatory clarity, and international cooperation.