20150810-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_15页_934kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - August 10, 2015
Core Content
This document is a financial report from Maybank ATR Kim Eng, providing insights into the performance of various companies and market trends in the Philippines as of August 10, 2015. It includes key market indices, analyst contacts, top investment ideas, and detailed market analysis for different sectors.
Key Market Data
| Metric | Value | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSEi | 7,532.52 | -0.76% |
| Turnover (PHPm) | 7,248.91 | -2.42% |
| PLDT ADR (USD) | 58.95 | -1.21% |
| PLDT ADR (PHP) | 2,696.37 | -1.30% |
| Ave interbank rate | 2.50 | -3.13 bps |
| PHP/USD rate | 45.74 | +0.09% |
Analysts
-
Luz Lorenzo
Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (632) 849 8836 -
Ramon Adviento
Email: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (63) 28498845 -
Michael Bengson
Email: michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (63) 28498840 -
Rommel Rodrigo
Email: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (632) 849 8839 -
Lovell Sarreal
Email: lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (632) 849 8841 -
Katherine Tan
Email: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com
Phone: (632) 849 8843
Top Investment Ideas
ALI (PHP38.70): All priced-in
- Performance: Reported net profit of PHP8.3b, up 18% YoY, in line with expectations.
- Growth Drivers: Broad-based growth, with a modest rise in residential sales offset by strong recurring revenues.
- View: Maintain BUY due to impressive results and clear strategy.
- Dividend Impact: Large capex requirements may lower dividend pay-out rate, but capital appreciation is emphasized.
URC (PHP235.00): Maintaining strong market share
- Performance: Adjusted 9MFY9/15 earnings up 14.3% YoY to PHP9.9b.
- Growth Drivers: Sales and EBIT growth, driven by lower input costs and better scale in core branded consumer foods (BCF).
- View: Maintain BUY with a revised target price of PHP235, 6% lower than before.
- Earnings Forecast: Revised earnings forecast for FY9/15F to PHP13b and FY9/16F to PHP15.5b.
EW (PHP20.90): Strong lending offset by fee adjustments
- Performance: 1H15 net profit dropped 3.7% YoY to PHP1b, with 2Q15 net income plunging 31% YoY to PHP408m.
- Growth Drivers: Strong consumer lending, with 25% YoY growth in loans, and NIM of 8.1%.
- View: Maintain BUY, with a revised target price of PHP27, 29% upside.
- Fee Adjustments: Fee income was adjusted due to accounting changes, impacting net income.
Market Talk Highlights
Consumer
- URC: Maintains strong market share with 14.3% YoY earnings growth. Revised earnings forecasts show 14–19% YoY growth.
- JFC: Earnings up 5% YoY to PHP2.6b, with 48% of the full-year profit estimate. Sales grew 9.5% YoY, but EBIT declined 10% due to higher raw material costs.
Telcos
- Bayantel: Globe Telecom Inc expects to complete corporate rehabilitation by October, earlier than the original 2023 target.
- Workforce Restructuring: GLO has started restructuring Bayantel's workforce as part of the merger.
Utilities
- EDC: Renewed joint R&D efforts with GNS Science for geothermal energy.
- VECO: Seeking approval for PHP1.06b capex for 2015, to fund 18 projects.
- MWC: Expanding bottled water business with 5 new bottling plants and plans for significant contribution to bottomline in 3–5 years.
Market Highlights
Property Sector
- ALI: Strong performance in 1H15, with net income of PHP8.3b, 18% YoY increase. Residential sales rose 9% YoY, while shopping mall and office revenues grew 9% and 16%, respectively.
- Dividend Impact: Dividend pay-out may decrease due to large capex requirements, but capital appreciation is the focus.
Banks
- EW: Maintains BUY despite fee adjustments. Core lending is robust, with 25% YoY growth in loans.
- Provisioning: Increased by 37% to PHP2.1b, with improved NPL ratio.
Figures and Financial Data
Figure 1: Key Data – ALI
| FYE 31 Dec | FY13A | FY14A | FY15E | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 76,337 | 89,028 | 108,023 | 127,865 | 150,837 |
| EBITDA | 21,443 | 27,919 | 30,808 | 37,765 | 44,993 |
| Core Net Profit | 11,741 | 14,803 | 17,044 | 21,650 | 26,365 |
| Core EPS | 0.83 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.47 | 1.79 |
| Net DPS | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| Core P/E | 46.1 | 36.5 | 32.9 | 25.9 | 21.3 |
| P/BV | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
Figure 2: Key Data – URC
| FYE 30 Sep | FY13A | FY14A | FY15E | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 80,995.2 | 92,376.3 | 110,149.4 | 124,848.2 | 139,705.8 |
| EBITDA | 13,900.7 | 18,004.5 | 22,407.7 | 25,724.6 | 29,175.3 |
| Core Net Profit | 8,993.1 | 11,423.4 | 13,010.7 | 15,496.5 | 18,380.0 |
| Core EPS | 4.12 | 5.24 | 5.96 | 7.10 | 8.43 |
| Net DPS | 2.43 | 3.03 | 3.00 | 2.98 | 3.55 |
| Core P/E | 46.2 | 36.4 | 32.0 | 26.8 | 22.6 |
| P/BV | 8.2 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.1 |
Figure 3: URC 9MFY9/14 Financial Highlights
| Metric | 3QFY9/14 (PHPm) | 3QFY9/15 (PHPm) | Change (% YoY) | 9MFY9/14 (PHPm) | 9MFY9/15 (PHPm) | Change (% YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 23,496 | 26,299 | 11.9 | 69,239 | 81,943 | 18.3 |
| Cost of Sales | (16,187) | (17,664) | 9.1 | (47,822) | (55,715) | 16.5 |
| Gross Profit | 7,309 | 8,635 | 18.1 | 21,417 | 26,228 | 22.5 |
| Net Interest Income | 3,104 | 2,456 | 26.4 | 5,842 | 4,784 | 10.7 |
| Provision for Income Tax | 0 | (119) | (100.2) | (138) | (238) | (41.8) |
| Net Profit | 408 | 591 | (30.9) | 1,008 | 1,047 | (3.7) |
Figure 4: Forecast Changes
| Metric | Old FY9/15 (PHPm) | Revised FY9/15 (PHPm) | Change (%) | Old FY9/16 (PHPm) | Revised FY9/16 (PHPm) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales and Services | 114,781 | 110,149 | (4.0) | 131,603 | 124,848 | (5.1) |
| Operating Profit | 19,558 | 17,478 | (10.6) | 23,420 | 20,338 | (13.2) |
| Net Profit | 22,466 | 25,723 | (10.3) | 30,147 | 30,147 | (10.5) |
Figure 5: 2Q15 and 1H15 Results
| Metric | 2Q15 (PHPm) | 2Q14 (PHPm) | Change (%) | 1H15 (PHPm) | 1H14 (PHPm) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | 3,104 | 2,456 | 26.4 | 5,842 | 4,784 | 22.1 |
| Non-Interest Income | 671 | 1,240 | (45.9) | 2,080 | 2,362 | (11.9) |
| Net Profit | 408 | 591 | (30.9) | 1,008 | 1,047 | (3.7) |
Figure 6: Forecast Changes
| Metric | New (PHPm) | 2016F Previous (PHPm) | Change (%) | New (PHPm) | 2017F Previous (PHPm) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | 14,693 | 14,704 | (0.1) | 16,988 | 17,007 | (17.5) |
| Non-Interest Income | 6,266 | 6,728 | (6.9) | 7,419 | 8,258 | (10.2) |
| Pre-Provision Operating Profit | 8,417 | 8,721 | (3.5) | 9,570 | 10,203 | (6.2) |
| Net Profit | 2,708 | 3,099 | (12.6) | 3,192 | 3,868 | (17.5) |
Figure 7: Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 7 August 2015)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rec | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 102.00 | 123.00 | 21 | BUY | 2014 | 22,466 | 6.27 | 0.9 | 16.3 | 2.10 | 2.1 | 48.56 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 14.0 |
| BPI | 92.10 | 101.00 | 10 | HOLD | 2014 | 18,039 | 4.62 | (10.9) | 19.9 | 0.91 | 1.0 | 36.64 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 14.5 | 14.0 |
| CHIB | 43.50 | 51.00 | 17 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,116 | 3.08 | (5.9) | 14.1 | 1.00 | 2.3 | 32.09 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| EW | 20.90 | 27.00 | 29 | BUY | 2014 | 2,073 | 1.84 | 0.9 | 11.4 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 19.01 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| MBT | 88.00 | 105.00 | 19 | BUY | 2014 | 19,614 | 7.15 | (10.9) | 12.3 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 50.49 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| PBB | 19.00 | 18.00 | (5) | HOLD | 2014 | 475 | 1.11 | (52.7) | 17.2 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 17.25 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| PNB | 64.80 | 77.00 | 19 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,359 | 4.34 | (8.5) | 14.9 | 1.00 | 1.0 | 66.02 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| RCB | 39.00 | 62.00 | 59 | BUY | 2014 | 3,969 | 3.11 | (8.1) | 12.5 | 1.00 | 2.6 | 37.47 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| SECB | 142.60 | 200.00 | 40 | BUY | 2014 | 7,164 | 11.88 | 42.9 | 12.0 | 2.00 | 1.4 | 77.77 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
The Week Ahead
| Date | Company | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11 | Petron Corporation, San Miguel Purefoods Company, Inc., San Miguel Corporation, Ginebra San Miguel, Inc., Philweb Corporation, Philex Petroleum Corporation, Atok-Big Wedge Company, Inc. | Analysts' / Investors' Briefing |
| Aug 12 | ABS-CBN Corporation | Analysts' / Investors' Briefing |
| Aug 13 | GMA Network, Inc., Ayala Corporation, D&L Industries, Inc., Filinvest Land, Inc., Energy Development Corporation | Annual Stockholders' Meeting / Analysts' / Investors' Briefing |
| Aug 14 | Alliance Global Group, Inc., GT Capital Holdings, Inc. | Analysts' / Investors' Briefing |
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