2022-04-22-莱坊-Warsaw_city_attractiveness_and_office_market_Q1_2022_8页_3mb

报告摘要

Warsaw: City Attractiveness and Office Market Summary (Q1 2022)

Core Content

Warsaw is presented as a highly attractive city for investment and business, with a strong focus on business friendliness, quality of life, and a robust office market. The city has a population of 1,794,166 and is projected to grow to 2,132,000 by 2030 and 2,249,000 by 2050. Its GDP growth in 2018 was 7.4%, with a GDP per capita of PLN 163,372. The average gross salary is PLN 7,051, and the unemployment rate is 1.8%, indicating a strong and stable economy.

Warsaw has been ranked as the 1st Business-Friendly City in the Business-Friendly City Perception Index 2021 and the 1st Youth-friendly City in the Europolis 2019 ranking. It also ranked 3rd in Europe and 6th in the world as the most vegan-friendly city in 2020, and 1st in Europe for being the most disability-friendly city in 2020.

Office Market Overview

Existing Stock: 6.24 million sq m
Supply Under Construction: 282,000 sq m
New Supply: 90,000 sq m
Vacancy Rate: 12.2%
Take-Up Volume (Q1 2022): 273,000 sq m

The office market saw a significant drop in new supply compared to 2021, with only 90,000 sq m delivered in Q1 2022, a 60% decrease. The majority of new space came from the Forest Tower (51,500 sq m) and the third building of the Lixa complex (19,500 sq m). The total supply under construction was 282,000 sq m, with most of it located in central areas, though their share decreased from 75% in Q4 2021 to 60% in March 2022.

Key Investment Support

Warsaw offers various support mechanisms for investors, including:

Individual approach and assistance at every stage of the investment process, including reference visits.
Back office support and guidance on public aid.
A real estate tax exemption program introduced by the City Council in 2017.

Support Activities for Investors

Information Activities: Assistance in data gathering, industry know-how, and city information packs.
Acquiring Office Space: Access to municipal real estate, location support, and cooperation with real estate agencies.
Recruitment Activities: Collaboration with academic institutions, HR agencies, and coordination of joint activities with universities.
Post-Investment Support: Assistance in daily operations, joint sector development, coordination of projects, and support in corporate social responsibility initiatives.

Lease Market Trends

Lease Agreements Signed (Q1 2022): 273,000 sq m, a 2.5 times increase compared to 2021.
Pre-Let Agreements: Two major agreements were signed with PKO BP Bank (35,000 sq m) and an undisclosed tenant (30,000 sq m) in the Forest Tower.
Lease Terms:
- Service Charge: PLN 16–27/sqm/month
- Rent-Free Period: 7–10 months
- Fit-Out Budget: EUR 200–600/sqm

Vacancy Rate and Rents

Vacancy Rate (Q1 2022): 12.2%, a 0.5 pp. reduction from the end of 2021.
Available Office Space: 760,000 sq m
Asking Rents:
- Central Business District: EUR 20–25/sqm/month
- Other central locations: EUR 15–24/sqm/month
- Outside the city centre: EUR 10–16/sqm/month
Effective Rents: 20% lower than asking rents due to high availability and incentive packages.

Market Outlook

The availability of office space is expected to continue influencing the construction market in 2022, with a likely continued decline in new supply.
Tenant activity remains strong, with a moderate level of turnover. The war in Ukraine has affected the construction sector, leading to supply chain disruptions, rising material and labor costs, and workforce shortages.
Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Russian companies relocating to Warsaw may bring new demand for office space in the coming quarters.

Professional Development Trends

Career Change Trends: 47% of Poles have changed industries since starting their career, and 45% have received promotions while staying with the same company.
Career Move Duration: 35% of candidates are willing to stay in the same position for 3–5 years, while 40% base their decision on company dynamics.
Work-Life Balance: 41% of candidates prioritize this, indicating a shift in employment expectations.