2024-12-14-ADB-2024年12月亚洲发展展望报告_22页_1mb

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK December 2024 Summary

Key Findings

• Economic Growth: Developing Asia’s growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 is lowered to 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively. Downward revisions stem from moderation in East Asia and South Asia, offset by stronger growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific (e.g., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan).
• US Policy Risks: The incoming Trump administration's policies, including higher tariffs, fiscal loosening, and restrictive immigration measures, are expected to impact developing Asia beyond the forecast horizon, primarily through trade tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• Global Economic Outlook: Major advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.6% in 2024 (up from 1.5%), driven by the US economy, while Japan is forecast to contract. Global inflation is cut to 2.7% for 2024 and 2.3% for 2025.
• Downside Risks: Risks include geopolitical tensions, the PRC’s property market fragility, and potential rapid US policy shifts. A risk scenario analysis suggests limited impact on developing Asia by 2025-2026.

Subregional Breakdown

• East Asia: Growth revised down to 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to weaker exports and domestic demand, with PRC growth maintained at 4.8%. Inflation declined, signaling price moderation.
• South Asia: Growth revised down to 5.9%. India’s growth fell to 6.5%, while Bangladesh and Pakistan’s inflation forecasts were lowered due to easing price pressures.
• Southeast Asia: Growth slightly revised upward to 4.7% in 2024, supported by manufacturing exports, though risks from trade fragmentation and severe weather events remain.
• Caucasus and Central Asia: Growth slightly increased to 4.9% in 2024, with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan leading economic expansion.
• The Pacific: Growth maintained at 3.4%, driven by Papua New Guinea and Fiji; inflation expected to rise moderately.

Country-Specific Highlights

• People’s Republic of China: 2024 growth remains at 4.8%, with cooling private consumption and subdued property sectors maintaining risks.
• Republic of Korea: Growth revised to 2.2% for 2024, weighed down by weak domestic demand.
• India: Growth forecast lowered to 6.5% for FY2024, driven by lingering supply chain disruptions and public spending cuts.
• Indonesia: Growth sustained at 5.0% in 2024, supported by tourism and infrastructure spending.
• Viet Nam: Growth lifted to 6.8%, driven by foreign investment and export-led manufacturing.

Inflation Trends

• Global inflation cut 0.3 percentage points in 2024, easing amid lower energy and food prices. Notable inflation moderation occurred in South Korea (1.3%) and the PRC (0.3%).
• China’s inflation projected at 0.3% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, reflecting subdued domestic demand.

Policy Impacts

• US Policy Shifts: The Trump administration’s aggressive trade and fiscal policies, expected from 2026 onward, are phased in partially, with potential side effects from earlier uncertainty.
• Environmental Policy: Expected withdrawal from climate agreements and rolling back environmental regulations could hinder global green transition efforts.

Outlook Summary

Developing Asia’s growth remains steady but faces significant external risks from US policy shifts and trade tensions. While domestic demand supports economic recovery, global cooling and regional labor market challenges complicate forecasts. Policy responses and regional collaboration will be key to navigating these risks.