2024-08-22-德勤-2024年全球半导体产业展望_16页_2mb

Executive Summary

The 2024 global semiconductor industry outlook predicts a rebound in chip sales to US$588 billion, up 13% from 2023 and 2.5% higher than 2022's record. Generative AI (Gen AI) is a key growth driver, with chip sales in this segment expected to exceed US$50 billion in 2024, accounting for about 8.5% of total market revenue. However, profitability challenges persist due to low fab utilization and inventory pressures. Other focus areas include advancing smart manufacturing with AI applications for design, defect detection, and predictive maintenance; geographical expansion in semiconductor assembly and test; cybersecurity enhancements to counter rising threats; and geopolitical tensions exacerbated by export controls on advanced nodes and Gen AI chips. Strategic recommendations emphasize improving inventory management, pursuing mergers and acquisitions, and addressing talent and supply chain risks.

Generative AI Impact

Generative AI accelerators are central to the 2024 semiconductor landscape, with projected sales of over US$50 billion, potentially representing a transformative influence on the industry. Challenges include high costs, inventory bulging due to the bullwhip effect, and questions over software willingness to pay premiums for Gen AI features. Opportunities arise from new chip architectures and edge computing applications.

Smart Manufacturing Advancements

The industry is pushing for smarter factories through AI-driven optimizations in chip design, anomaly detection, and digital twin simulations. This includes energy efficiency improvements and human-centric approaches to automation, aiming for lights-out operations while retaining skilled workforce involvement.

Assembly and Test Geographies

Back-end assembly and test (AT) capacity is expanding into new regions like Vietnam, India, and Poland to de-risk supply chains. Advanced packaging demand from complex Gen AI chips strains resources, requiring partnerships for innovation and sustainability-focused material handling.

Cybersecurity Enhancements

Semiconductor companies face heightened cyber threats, including ransomware and state-backed attacks on IP. Strategies involve investing in AI-assisted defense, sharing threat intelligence, and incorporating security into ESG reporting to ensure resilience amid global disparities.

Geopolitical and Export Controls

Rigid export restrictions on advanced chips and Gen AI technologies from the U.S. and allies create compliance challenges. These measures risk fragmenting the market and prompting self-sufficiency efforts in restricted countries, with potential long-term impacts on industry innovation and supply chain stability.

Future Signposts

Key actions for 2024 include refining inventory strategies amid fluid demand, exploring strategic M&A deals in niche areas like advanced packaging, managing channel partner relationships amid geopolitical shifts, navigating cross-border tax regulations, addressing talent shortfalls through diversified sourcing, and leveraging Gen AI to mitigate risks while fostering growth.