【德勤_】2024年全球半导体产业展望_16页_2mb

报告摘要

2024 chip sales forecast: Expected to reach US$588 billion, marking a 13% increase from 2023 (down 9.4%) and slightly above 2022 records (US$574 billion).
Key drivers: Generative AI (Gen AI) chips are driving growth post-memory and logic declines; Gen AI market projected >US$50 billion in 2024 (8.5% market share).
Major headwinds: Remaining high inventories (US$60B) and low fab utilization (~70% Q4 2023) will impact performance in 2024 H1.

Market evolution: Gen AI chips (accelerators for training/inference) hit US$50B+ in 2024, escalating by seven-fold unit price from non-AI chips.
Industry impact: Gen AI may benefit high-margin chip segments but strain unit economics; at-risk of demand volatility and hardware war effects.
Strategic questions: How will Gen AI capacity growth affect semiconductor sustainability? Will game-changing AI players emerge?

AI adoption in chipmaking: Generative AI poised to revolutionize smart manufacturing processes—enhancing design, predictive maintenance, quality testing, etc.; 72% of semiconductor execs view Gen AI as transformative.
Sustainability goals: Advanced nodes (3nm) require exponentially more energy; retrofitting greenfield plants & using AI-enabled tools (BIM, digital twins, 6D modeling) is critical.

Outsourcing trends: Over 80% of AT work still occurs in Asia (China/Taiwan), despite US/EU capacity expansions and nearshoring shifts toward Vietnam, India, etc.
Supply chain complexity: Packaging demand surges due to Gen AI; AT facilities face skills shortages and time-to-market pressures.
Strategic opportunities: Countries target AT incentives via policies like the Chips Act—OSATs must adapt technologies/locations to balance country risk and market access.

Heightened risk profile: Semiconductor intellectual property is targeted via state-sponsored attacks; asymmetric battle with sophisticated threat actors.
Defensive measures: Investing in cybersecurity technologies (including AI/ML-based systems) is vital, alongside supplier/risk assessments and setting future ESG standards.

Key restrictions: Export controls on advanced nodes & Gen AI chips (performance density FLOPS/mm²), limiting access for key markets.
Market response: Competitors (China) may retaliate with further controls—impacting global trade dynamics and forcing resilient supply chain diversification.
Ramifications: Restrictions could lead to self-sufficiency efforts (China) or adverse geo-economic effects on the global economy.

How will fluctuating demand (traditional vs specialized) shape inventory?
What strategic tax, legal and M&A frameworks will emerge in cross-border semiconductor deals?
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