20161213-USDA-Feed_Outlook_25页_936kb

报告摘要

Feed Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global and U.S. coarse grains outlook for the 2016/17 marketing year. It highlights production, use, trade, and price trends, with a focus on the implications for U.S. exports and domestic markets.

Main Points

Global Coarse Grains Production

Global coarse grain production is forecast to reach a record high of 1,329.4 million tons, an increase of 9.7 million tons from the previous month.
The most significant contributors to the increase are China (+3.7 million tons) and Brazil (+3.0 million tons), driven by higher area and yield.
Russia (+1.0 million tons), Canada (+0.7 million tons), and Indonesia (+0.6 million tons) also saw increases in production.
Australia (+0.5 million tons) and China (+0.5 million tons) increased sorghum production, while Argentina (-0.7 million tons) and Indonesia (-0.5 million tons) saw declines in sorghum production.

U.S. Coarse Grains Outlook

U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to remain 157.1 million tons, up 18.0 million tons from the 2015/16 level.
Corn accounts for 91% of feed and residual use, down from 94% in 2015/16.
Sorghum ending stocks are projected to decrease by 5 million bushels to 34.8 million bushels, due to increased use in ethanol production.
Oats ending stocks are unchanged, and the season-average price is raised to $1.90 per bushel, up 5 cents from the previous forecast.
Corn season-average price is raised to $3.35 per bushel, up 5 cents from the previous forecast.

International Corn Trade

World corn trade for the international trade year (October-September) is projected to increase by 1.4 million tons to 179.1 million tons.
Brazil and Russia are expected to increase their corn exports, with Brazil's exports rising by 1.0 million tons to 28.0 million tons.
Vietnam, Iran, Taiwan, Egypt, and Algeria are projected to increase corn imports, mainly from Brazil and Argentina.
Indonesia is expected to reduce corn imports due to government regulations and increased domestic production.

Key Information

Brazil: A Major Corn Competitor

Brazil has become the world's second-largest corn exporter, surpassing Argentina since 2011.
The second-crop (safrinha) corn in Mato Grosso has seen over 60% of total corn output, driven by area expansion and increased yields.
Safrinha corn yields have grown significantly, with a 73% increase from 2001-05 to 2011-15.
The 2015/16 safrinha corn crop was severely affected by late planting and early rain cessation, resulting in a 30% drop in yields.
In 2016/17, safrinha corn area is expected to increase by over 5%, and early planting is anticipated to lead to healthy yields.

Indonesia: Domestic Corn Production and Use

Indonesia has limited corn imports due to government restrictions.
Broiler meat consumption has doubled since 2000, but remains low per capita compared to global standards.
Domestic corn production has grown by 50% since 2003, mainly due to increased yields.
Feed mill demand has outstripped domestic supply, leading to corn imports of 3.5 million tons in 2014.
In 2016/17, corn imports are projected to decline to 1.7 million tons, due to government regulations and higher domestic production.

Global Coarse Grain Stocks

Global coarse grain ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.5 million tons to 254.9 million tons.
China has the largest increase in ending stocks, up 2.6 million tons to 107.1 million tons.
Vietnam and Brazil also saw increases in ending stocks, with Vietnam (+0.6 million tons) and Brazil (+0.5 million tons).

U.S. Corn Exports

U.S. corn exports for 2016/17 are projected to remain unchanged at 56.5 million tons, the highest level since 2007/08.
Outstanding sales at the beginning of December are more than 70% higher than in 2015, and November inspections are more than double those of 2015.
A sharp increase in corn supplies in Argentina and Brazil is expected to intensify competition for U.S. exports in the latter part of 2016/17.

Conclusion

The 2016/17 coarse grains outlook indicates a record global production and increased competition in the corn export market, especially from Brazil. U.S. corn exports remain unchanged, but competition is expected to rise due to increased supplies from Southern Hemisphere countries. Domestic use of coarse grains remains high, with corn dominating the feed and residual use. Sorghum and oats prices have seen modest changes, with sorghum prices lowering and oats prices rising. Indonesia has limited corn imports due to government regulations, and its domestic production has increased significantly.