20211213-USDA-Feed_Outlook__December_2021_22页_619kb

Feed Outlook Summary: December 2021

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook on U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2021/22 marketing year. It covers supply and use projections for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, as well as international trade and production trends.

U.S. Feed Grain Market Highlights

Corn

• Supply Projections: Unchanged from the November WASDE report, with total supplies projected at 16,323 million bushels, including 15,062 million bushels of domestic production.
• Use Projections: Total corn use for 2021/22 is 14,830 million bushels, slightly higher than the 2020/21 record of 14,818 million bushels.
• Exports: Projected at 2,500 million bushels, below the 2020/21 record of 2,753 million bushels.
• Prices: Season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel, up from $4.53 per bushel in 2020/21.
• Ethanol Use: Projected at 5,250 million bushels, with strong margins due to high oil and gasoline prices and improved corn availability.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 1,493 million bushels, up from 1,236 million bushels in 2020/21.
• On-Farm Inventories: Only 395 million bushels of corn were held on farms as of September 1, 2021 (32% of total), the lowest since 2013 due to drought conditions.

Sorghum

• Production: Remains unchanged at 471 million bushels.
• Exports: Projected at 320 million bushels, with Mexico becoming a significant destination.
• Prices: Season-average farm price is $5.45 per bushel, unchanged from the November report.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 37 million bushels, with a slight increase in use to 45 million bushels and ending stocks up to 28 million bushels.

Barley

• Production: Projected at 118 million bushels, the lowest since 1934.
• Exports: Projected at 11 million bushels, with total use at 136 million bushels.
• Prices: Season-average farm price is $5.15 per bushel, up from $4.75 per bushel in 2020/21.
• Ending Stocks: Unchanged at 60 million bushels, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio consistent with historical levels.

Oats

• Production: Unchanged at 40 million bushels.
• Imports: Increased by 8 million bushels to 77 million bushels, due to tighter supplies and strong cash prices.
• Prices: Season-average farm price is $3.70 per bushel, up $0.05 from November.
• Use: Feed and residual use is projected at 45 million bushels, with ending stocks at 28 million bushels.

International Outlook Highlights

Global Coarse Grain Production

• Total: Projected at 1,501.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons from the November report.
• Corn: World production is up 85.9 million tons, driven by Ukraine (record-high 40 million tons) and EU (up 2.5 million tons), partially offset by China (down 0.4 million tons).
• Barley: World production is 145.5 million tons, down 0.7 million tons, with Australia increasing production and EU, Iran, and Canada reducing output.
• Sorghum: World production is 66.3 million tons, up 0.3 million tons, with Australia seeing higher output.
• Oats: World production is 23.0 million tons, up 0.3 million tons, with Canada increasing output and the EU reducing.

Key Trade Developments

• Ukraine: Record corn production and exports, with strong yields in the northwestern regions.
• Brazil: Increased corn exports, reflecting an unusually high pace for the tail end of its crop season.
• China: Projected to import record amounts of sorghum, with potential increased imports from Australia.
• Mexico: Emerged as a new major destination for U.S. sorghum exports.

Market Implications

• Corn: Prices have remained firm during the harvest season, influenced by strong demand for ethanol and reduced on-farm inventories. Ending stocks are higher than previous years but still below peak levels.
• Sorghum: Prices are lower than summer peaks but remain above 2020/21 levels. Exports are more diversified, with Mexico becoming a key market.
• Barley: Record-low production and prices are expected to remain elevated due to tight supplies and strong global demand.
• Oats: Strong prices and increased imports suggest continued supply constraints, though use and ending stocks are projected to be lower than previous years.

Key Figures and Trends

• Corn:
  • Season-average farm price: $5.45 per bushel
  • Ethanol use: 5,250 million bushels
  • Ending stocks: 1,493 million bushels
• Sorghum:
  • Season-average farm price: $5.45 per bushel
  • Ending stocks: 37 million bushels
• Barley:
  • Season-average farm price: $5.15 per bushel
  • Ending stocks: 60 million bushels
• Oats:
  • Season-average farm price: $3.70 per bushel
  • Ending stocks: 28 million bushels
• Global Coarse Grain Production:
  • Total: 1,501.7 million tons
  • Corn: 1,208.7 million tons
  • Barley: 145.5 million tons
  • Sorghum: 66.3 million tons
  • Oats: 23.0 million tons

Conclusion

The U.S. feed grain market remains firm with higher prices and tight supplies, particularly for corn, sorghum, and oats. International trade is influenced by record corn production in Ukraine and Brazil, and increased sorghum exports to Mexico and China. Barley production is at a record low, leading to higher prices and reduced supply. The report highlights the importance of global demand, supply chain issues, and weather conditions in shaping market dynamics for the 2021/22 season.