20231122-招银国际-快手-W-01024.HK-Upbeat_margin_to_continue_8页_1mb

Kuaishou (1024 HK) Report Summary

Key Highlights from Analyst Update

• 3Q23 Performance: Kuaishou delivered upbeat margins and in-line revenue, with adjusted net profit beating consensus by 19%. Ecommerce GMV and revenue grew significantly, supported by brand participation and shelf-based mall expansion. DAU increased by 6% YoY, and adjusted NPM reached 11.4%.
• 4Q23E Outlook: Resilient momentum expected, with revenue growth of +15% YoY and bottom line at RMB2.8bn (9% above consensus). Ecommerce and ads segments show strong growth, driven by deeper MAC penetration and shelf-based contributions.
• Earnings Upgrade: Full-year 2023-2025 earnings forecast raised by 7-10%, with unchanged target price of HK$97 (65.8% upside from current price).
• Recommendation: Maintain "BUY" rating, citing catalysts of solid Q4 performance, continued shelf-based mall expansion, and earnings upside.

Catalysts

• Strong Q4 2023 results.
• Expansion of shelf-based ecl mall in ecommerce.
• Potential for increased earnings, driven by recovery in external ads and robust internal ads.

Target Price and Valuation

• Target price: HK$97.00, unchanged from previous TP.
• Current price: HK$58.50, implying a 65.8% upside.
• Consensus vs. Analyst Estimates: Revenue and profit forecasts slightly higher than consensus for FY23-25.