2025-05-20-Jefferies-VAT（VACN）_2025_-_2029年较低的增长预期_7页_104kb

VAT (VACN SW) Equity Research Summary

Key Changes and Outlook

• Jefferies revises its First View rating to HOLD from previous ratings.
• Price Target (PT) lowered to CHF 270.00, a 15% decrease from prior PTs.
• Financial expectations for FY27 have been revised downwards. Revenue guidance is lowered to a range of CHF 1.5 - 1.7 billion (previously CHF 1.8 - 2.2 billion).
• Assumes USD/CHF exchange rate of 0.83 (previously 0.95) and 2027 WFE spend of USD 125 billion (previously USD 135 billion).

2025-2029 Expectations (Revised Lower Estimates)

• Group Sales Growth: Low-to-mid-teens (~10-19%) (previously low-double-digits).
• EBITDA Margin: Corridor of 30%-37% (previously 32-37%, reflecting challenging FX).
• Free Cash Flow Conversion: 60%-70% of EBITDA (previously 60-65%).
• ROIC: Maintained at >45%.
• Capex & R&D: Both expected around 5% of group sales (previously Capex 4-5%, R&D 5-6%).
• Dividend Payout: Unchanged at up to 100% of FCFE.

Analyst Comments & Forecast vs. Guidance

• Revenue forecast for 2025 is expected to grow 15%, lower than company's prior indications (~20%).
• Current 2027 revenue forecast is CHF 1.23 billion, below the lower end of the new company guidance.
• Weakness noted in memory WFE spend expected in 2026. Recovery timing is uncertain.
• Emphasizes potential to outperform underlying markets.

Key Risks

• Downside Risks: Weakness in AI supply chain leading to downward revisions in HBM investments; failure of NAND recovery; sluggish mature node WFE due to weak auto/industrial demand.

Company Information

• VAT: Leading supplier of high-vacuum valves and services for semiconductor, display, solar cell, and high-precision product manufacturing.
• Market Cap: CHF 9.6B / USD $11.5B.

Other Metrics

• Float: 89.8%.

Investor Information & Valuation

• PT Basis: CHF 270, based on FY26E EPS CHF 8.40 and P/E 32x.
• Ticker: VACN SW.

Analyst Certification

• Both Janardan Menon (Analyst) and Om Bakhda (Associate) certify views are theirs and compensation not linked to their views in the report.

Note

• Provides access only to Jefferies clients.

Markdown generated based on the provided text, summarizing key investment outlook, financial targets, risks, and company info for VAT securities.