德勤_2025年商用车市场的未来及OEM行动必要性研究_35页_3mb

Summary of the Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act

Core Content

The commercial vehicle market is undergoing a significant transformation driven by a convergence of technological, regulatory, and customer-related trends. Traditional OEMs, which have historically relied on long-term B2B relationships, diesel technologies, and a focus on reliability and uptime, are now facing unprecedented challenges. The shift toward zero-emission transport (ZETs), digitalization, and evolving customer behavior are reshaping the industry, requiring OEMs to rethink their business models, product portfolios, and operational strategies.

Main Trends and Uncertainties

The following are the key trends and uncertainties influencing the future of the commercial vehicle market:

1. Geopolitical and Regulatory Pressures

• Macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility disrupts supply chains, energy markets, and trade flows.
• Stricter emission regulations (e.g., EU CO₂ fleet limits, California ACT rule) are forcing OEMs to rethink powertrain strategies.
• Supply chain constraints (e.g., semiconductor shortages, shipping bottlenecks) continue to affect production and forecasting.

2. Technological Challenges

• Drivetrain diversification is becoming essential as OEMs must support diesel, BEV, FCEV, and hybrid technologies.
• Autonomous and connected vehicles are redefining TCO and fleet optimization strategies.
• Modular product platforms are crucial to manage complexity and enable scalability across different propulsion systems and regional requirements.

3. Changing Customer Behavior

• Shift from ownership to usage-based models (e.g., TaaS, subscription, pay-per-use) is increasing as fleets seek flexibility and risk reduction.
• Fleet investment uncertainty persists due to unproven technologies, unclear regulatory timelines, and infrastructure gaps.
• Digitalization of customer interactions is reshaping expectations, with fleets demanding seamless digital touchpoints throughout the buying and operating journey.

4. Competitive Ecosystem Evolution

• New entrants (e.g., tech firms, startups, vertically integrated fleet operators) are challenging traditional OEMs with tailored solutions and integrated services.
• Integrated digital and platform services are becoming a cornerstone of differentiation.
• In-life services and predictive maintenance are evolving into strategic tools for customer retention and margin improvement.

Key Uncertainties

Two major uncertainties are shaping the future of the industry:

1. Transition to ZETs

• The speed and structure of the shift to zero-emission trucks remain unclear.
• Infrastructure development, TCO, and residual value risks are major factors influencing adoption.
• OEMs must prepare for a variety of propulsion systems coexisting in the short to medium term.

2. Ownership Structure Changes

• The dominance of TaaS is uncertain across all segments, with many fleet operators still preferring traditional ownership or financing.
• OEMs need to balance their investment in usage-based models while maintaining support for traditional ownership.

Strategic Scenarios for the Future

The study outlines four potential strategic scenarios that OEMs may face by 2035, based on technical complexity and ownership structure:

Scenario 1 – High Complexity & Truck-as-a-Service (TaaS)

• Vehicle customization remains high due to diverse applications and coexisting powertrains.
• Ownership shifts to service providers and fleet operators.
• Data-driven optimization and uptime guarantees are critical.
• OEMs must manage complex portfolios and build strong service ecosystems.

Scenario 2 – Standardization & TaaS

• Standardized electric fleets dominate, with nearly all vehicles on subscription-based models.
• AI-driven management optimizes fleet utilization and efficiency.
• Vehicle ownership disappears, and OEMs focus on service bundling and TCO reduction.

Scenario 3 – High Complexity & Traditional Ownership

• Highly individualized trucks and powertrains persist.
• Ownership remains with haulage companies and private fleets.
• Long-term investment continues, with OEMs focusing on proven technologies and in-house services.

Scenario 4 – Standardization & Traditional Ownership

• Standardized BEVs lead the market, with cost efficiency and easy maintenance.
• Modular platforms reduce complexity and enable faster innovation.
• In-house service execution is simpler, and logistics players maintain control over fleets.

No-Regret Strategic Moves

Regardless of the scenario, OEMs should prioritize the following "no-regret" moves:

• Invest in ZET platforms to stay competitive in the decarbonization trend.
• Develop digital infrastructure to support integrated services and predictive maintenance.
• Adopt flexible manufacturing to accommodate multiple powertrain options.
• Form strategic partnerships with software providers, telematics specialists, and charging infrastructure companies.
• Reskill the workforce to meet evolving technological and operational demands.
• Focus on cost reduction to improve margins and EBIT potential.

Financial Implications

• High-complexity TaaS is the most capital-intensive scenario.
• Standardized ownership offers the most financially efficient model.
• OEMs must balance investment, risk exposure, and asset management across evolving structures.

Conclusion

The commercial vehicle market is at a pivotal moment, with OEMs needing to adapt quickly to a rapidly changing landscape. The combination of decarbonization, digitalization, and shifting ownership models is redefining the industry's strategic priorities. OEMs that proactively invest in ZET platforms, digital capabilities, and flexible business models will be better positioned to thrive in the future. However, they must also prepare for a dual path of development: supporting both traditional ownership and emerging TaaS models.