深度报告-2025-09-01-美联储-通货膨胀动态对货币政策策略的影响（英）页_44页_1mb

This paper examines robust monetary policy strategies in two key contexts: low demand and low inflation, and situations involving a tradeoff between inflation and output stabilization due to supply shocks or sectoral dynamics. It evaluates two main strategies:

Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) vs. Asymmetric Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT).

Key Findings:

1. FAIT vs. FIT at the Effective Lower Bound (ELB):

   • FAIT provides modest benefits over FIT during recessions by allowing a lower federal funds rate path and faster inflation convergence to the target.
   • FAIT requires inflation to overshoot the target in the long run, though the overshooting is typically mild.
   • Modifications to FIT with thresholds (delaying exit from the ELB) can produce similar outcomes, but credibility and communication challenges remain for both FAIT and threshold-based strategies.
   • Public understanding and credibility are crucial for FAIT to deliver its benefits, as incomplete communication may sacrifice some effectiveness.

2. Optimal Policy in Response to Inflationary Shocks:

   • Provided inflation expectations are well-anchored, monetary policy may allow temporary inflation deviations from the target in response to certain supply shocks or sectoral dynamics (e.g., shocks concentrated in specific sectors with sticky prices).
   • Large inflation shocks risk public sensitivity to inflation dynamics, potentially leading to persistent upward spirals if policy is not sufficiently forceful and credible.
   • Policy should lean against large cost-push shocks but tolerate some inflation if it arises in sectors with flexible prices or in the presence of temporary supply disruptions.

Practical Implications:

• FAIT or modified FIT may offer insurance against ELB risks.
• Credibility and clear communication are paramount, with incomplete strategies simplifying communication but at the cost of reduced effectiveness in shaping expectations.
• Supply shocks, sectoral dynamics, and nonlinear inflation dynamics continue to pose significant risks, requiring policies that balance inflation and output stabilization, especially in unexpected or persistent high-inflation scenarios. Inflation dynamics may weaken under these conditions.

Conclusion:
FAIT provides modest benefits over FIT, particularly in ELB scenarios, but achieving its full potential hinges on credibility and communication. Supply shocks and nonlinear inflation risks imply policies must remain flexible and active to preserve price stability and economic activity.