美联储-改变工作以对抗通货膨胀_劳动力市场对通货膨胀冲击的反应（英）-2025_73页_768kb

短摘要（中文）

本文探讨了通胀对劳动力市场调整的影响，发现通胀通过改变工人找工作的频率和性质影响资源分配。研究通过数据和模型表明，通胀上升会增加就业转换率，但转换的质量下降，因此对产出的影响有不确定性。通胀幅度不同时，产出可能增加或减少，通胀率小的新衰退性冲击可能导致产出短期增加，而较大通胀冲击则会导致产出减少，通胀衰退组合还可能延缓产出恢复。

总结（英文）

Title: Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks

Abstract: Economic Theory and Empirical Data:
Higher-than-expected inflation lowers real wages, prompting workers to search more actively and become more effective in securing new jobs, thereby increasing the frequency of job-to-job transitions but reducing the efficiency gains per transition.

Contributions:

1. Empirical Evidence:

   • A 1 percentage point increase in inflation raises U.S. monthly job-to-job transition rates by up to 4.5%. Workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search more effectively.
   • Inflationary shocks lead to a higher job-to-job transition rate, while deflationary shocks reduce transitions but increase the productivity gains per transition when the shock magnitude is small.

2. Theoretical Model: Building from Bostanci et al.:

   • An inflationary shock reduces aggregate output due conflicting labor market effects: more transitions but lower efficiency per transition.
   • Small deflationary shocks increase output short-run; large ones decrease output. The outcome depends on whether quality or quantity channels dominate.

3. Quantitative Analysis:

   • The calibrated New Keynesian model shows that:
     • Inflation reduces real wages, raising transition rates by 4.5–9.7% for a 1 pp shock.
     • Output declined with inflation shocks (e.g., 2 pp shock caused a ~0.2%) but increased with small deflationary shocks.

4. Policy Implications:

   • Intertemporal adjustment in labor markets complicates stable inflation policies. Monetary policy should aim for low and predictable inflation to mitigate negative short-run effects.
   • Unclear impact of worker expectations and market heterogeneity remain empirical and modeling challenges.

Conclusion:
The paper shows that ① Inflation increases job moving but decreases allocative efficiency, leading to ambiguous output effects, non-monotonic in shock size, and averaging higher transition response than prior models. Finding qualifies versus focusing on "cleansing effects" of recessions.